Sydney, January 26, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — Trading has wrapped up for the day.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares will not trade on Monday, with the ASX cash market shut for the Australia Day holiday. Investors won’t get a fresh look at the stock until trading resumes Tuesday. The week ahead is short, but inflation and interest rate forecasts remain front and center. 1
This is significant because CBA is Australia’s biggest listed lender and a major market force, so even small policy shifts can move large amounts of capital. Banks also factor in expectations for net interest margin — the gap between income from loans and expenses on deposits.
CBA closed Friday at A$149.48, down 0.75%. The stock has fallen in four of the past five sessions and is off about 6.9% since its Dec. 29 close. On that day, ANZ Group slipped 0.5%, and National Australia Bank dipped 0.2%. 2
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis highlighted the “trimmed mean” inflation figure—a core gauge that filters out the most volatile price swings—as a likely factor in the Reserve Bank’s decision in early February. Westpac’s nowcast puts trimmed mean inflation at 0.7% for the quarter. 3
ANZ economists Adam Boyton and Aaron Luk pointed out that the surprise fall in unemployment makes a February rate hike “more likely at the margin,” even though they still view inflation as the main driver. NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent expects trimmed mean inflation to hit about 0.9%, with travel and new-car prices leading the upward push. 4
Last week, Commonwealth Bank economist Harry Ottley pointed to strong jobs data as a clear reason to expect a rate hike in February, with the cash rate forecast rising to 3.85%. He called the upcoming CPI report “the next big test” for the central bank. 5
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham highlighted a “tangible risk” of an RBA rate hike in February, even though the bank’s primary forecast expects tightening to come later in the year. He added that if the RBA did move that fast, describing it as “finetuning” would be hard to justify. 6
The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board will convene on Feb. 2-3. Traders at the bank are watching that date carefully—it’s the next major policy milestone following the release of inflation data. 7
CBA is gearing up for its half-year results and interim dividend announcement on Feb. 11. The ex-dividend date is slated for Feb. 18, and the interim dividend payment is expected around March 30. 8
Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia called out CBA for trading at “a steep premium” relative to his A$100 fair value estimate. He cautioned that this gap could exaggerate market reactions to surprises in margins, costs, or credit quality. On Jan. 23, Morningstar put the stock’s premium at 49% above that target. 9
The real risk is a hotter inflation figure that ramps up rate-hike expectations, which could hit a market already factoring in steady conditions. A softer reading might calm policy worries but could spark new concerns about loan growth and household stress early in the year.
The consumer price index for the December quarter is set for release on Wednesday, Jan. 28, at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. 10
