LONDON, Jan 26, 2026, 11:29 (GMT) — Regular session
Oil prices nudged up Monday, staying close to two-week peaks amid a brutal U.S. winter storm that cut output and ongoing concerns about Middle East tensions. Brent crude futures inched up 7 cents to $65.95 a barrel by 1107 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 3 cents, reaching $61.10. Both benchmarks surged over 2% on Friday, finishing the week with a 2.7% gain. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva pointed to storm-triggered “shut-ins,” or temporary production stoppages, which are tightening “physical flows” — the actual movement of oil in the market. 1
Timing is key. U.S. production is easing just as winter demand picks up and logistics grow complicated, tightening the prompt market more than the longer-term outlook suggests.
Oil prices also move quickly on geopolitical shifts. Traders frequently add a “risk premium”—extra cost—whenever supply routes seem vulnerable, even if no actual disruptions have occurred.
U.S. operators halted production as storm Fern brought freezing rain, sleet, and heavy snow across much of the country, state regulators and analysts reported. Energy Aspects put the outage at roughly 300,000 barrels a day, with the Permian Basin alone down 200,000 barrels. North Dakota’s output dropped between 80,000 and 110,000 barrels daily, according to the state regulator. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures in the U.S. hit their highest since November on Friday, last rising about 3% to $2.44 a gallon. Veteran analyst Tom Kloza pointed to the potential for a spike in distillate demand. 2
Supply elsewhere is shifting. Tengizchevroil has kicked off a gradual restart following an outage at Kazakhstan’s massive Tengiz field. Kazakhstan’s government revealed that Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov pressed ExxonMobil to accelerate repairs. Chevron holds a 50% stake in the consortium; ExxonMobil owns 25%, alongside KazMunayGaz and Lukoil. Tengiz was producing roughly 606,000 barrels a day in 2024. 3
OPEC+ is gearing up for its next key move. The group is set to hold steady on output increases for March at Sunday’s meeting, according to three OPEC+ delegates who spoke to Reuters. Oil prices have jumped more than 8% this month, topping $66 a barrel. The eight countries meeting on Feb. 1—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE—had previously raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels a day from April through December 2025, then paused monthly increases for January to March amid soft demand forecasts. 4
Combine these factors, and you get a market buffeted by sudden shocks and deeper supply decisions. Weather can suddenly shift barrels, while producer policies and export limits take more time to register in the numbers.
The storm story could quickly reverse. Should temperatures rise and wells, roads, and power grids return to normal, production might rebound sharply. That weather premium could vanish, even if the geopolitical headlines remain unchanged.
The next key data to watch is inventories. The American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly stock report Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Then on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Energy Information Administration follows with its petroleum status report. These updates often shake up crude prices when supply-demand dynamics shift. 5
Macro factors are in focus as the Federal Reserve meets Jan. 27–28. The policy statement drops at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Any sharp dollar reaction could ripple through commodities, forcing oil traders to weigh interest rates, inventory levels, and winter weather all at once. 6
