SYDNEY, Jan 27, 2026, 17:54 (AEDT) — The market has closed.
Shares of Woodside Energy Group Ltd climbed on Tuesday, gaining roughly 1% to close at A$24.32. Investors appeared to be positioning themselves ahead of a company update expected later this week, despite a dip in oil prices. 1
Timing is key. Woodside’s earnings and dividend potential continue to fluctuate with crude and LNG-linked prices, as the oil market reels from outages, geopolitical tensions, and renewed emphasis on supply discipline.
Oil edged lower in early Asian trading Tuesday, pressured by signs that Kazakh crude flows are bouncing back, even as a U.S. winter storm keeps knocking out energy infrastructure. Brent slipped 0.7% to $65.15 a barrel, while WTI dropped 0.6% to $60.28. ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes noted the storm had “raised concerns about fuel supply,” despite easing worries elsewhere. 2
Woodside investors aren’t just focused on the company’s upcoming results—they’re also weighing the tug-of-war in oil markets. Sources say OPEC+ will likely hold off on boosting output through March, with eight members set to make a decision at their Feb. 1 meeting. That comes after oil prices surged more than 8% in January, topping $66. 3
Crude dipped slightly in U.S. trading Monday as investors weighed short-term storm disruptions against broader supply concerns and rising Iran risk premiums. Dennis Kissler, senior VP of trading at BOK Financial, noted that “Crude remains in a holding type trade pattern” pending clearer signals from Washington on its Iran stance. 4
Shale remains a key wildcard. Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy, cautioned that U.S. shale output might drop by up to 400,000 barrels per day in 2026 if prices slide. He added, “For 2026 we see a flat development of shale” in a downside scenario. 5
Woodside is riding the wave of commodity prices, but the real trigger lies within its own operations. Investors are zeroing in on updates about production, sales, and costs, looking for clues on how the company is handling project execution and marketing amid a volatile LNG landscape.
Woodside moves its supply into Asia and beyond via a blend of term contracts and spot sales, and that balance is crucial when crude and gas prices swing. When the oil strip strengthens, realised prices for liquids and parts of contracted gas rise. But a sharp drop usually dents the sector’s multiples first, sparking fresh scrutiny.
The investor calendar lists the company’s Q4 2025 results on Jan. 28, with the full 2025 annual report set for Feb. 24. 6
The risk is clear: crude prices drop and don’t recover. Reuters highlighted China’s crude balance, noting stockpiling can absorb excess barrels but tends to diminish when prices rise. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser called oil glut forecasts “seriously exaggerated,” though that hinges on continuous buyer interest. 7
Wednesday’s quarterly report is next on the docket for the stock. Traders are also eyeing the Feb. 1 OPEC+ meeting, hoping for updates on Kazakhstan’s supply and any new developments around storm-related outages in the U.S. 8
