New York, Jan 27, 2026, 05:08 EST — Premarket
- CVS Health shares dropped roughly 9% in premarket trading following a nearly flat 2027 Medicare Advantage payment update
- CMS forecasted a modest net average rise of 0.09% year-over-year. Comments are due by Feb. 25, and the final rates will be set by April 6.
- Traders are tuning into insurer earnings calls, hunting for early signals on pricing, benefits, and margin pressures
Shares of CVS Health (CVS) dropped roughly 9% in premarket trading Tuesday after U.S. health regulators announced a 2027 Medicare Advantage payment update that fell well short of investor expectations. The stock had closed Monday up about 1% at $83.87. (Barron’s)
This shift is significant since Medicare Advantage, the private-sector alternative to traditional Medicare, ranks among the largest profit sources for major U.S. health insurers. A weaker payment forecast could push plans to cut benefits, hike premiums, or absorb rising medical expenses, all of which can pinch their profits.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced its 2027 “Advance Notice,” projecting a net average payment increase of 0.09% year over year—amounting to over $700 million—if the proposal is finalized. The update factors in medical cost trends, 2026 Star Ratings (which influence bonus payments), and adjustments to risk calculations. CMS has set a public comment deadline for Feb. 25 before issuing final rates by April 6. “These proposed payment policies are about making sure Medicare Advantage works better for the people it serves,” CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz said. (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
Risk adjustment—a system that boosts payments when members are sicker—is getting a tighter grip from CMS. The agency plans to exclude diagnoses from “unlinked” chart review records, according to its fact sheet. These changes add up to a 0.09% net impact. CMS also pointed out that, factoring in expected trends in coding and population shifts, the overall payment change would average 2.54%. (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
The policy announcement sent shockwaves through the sector. UnitedHealth and Humana plunged in after-hours trading, while CVS’s Aetna insurance unit came under heavy scrutiny. “People were estimating this flat rate nearer to 4 to 5% due to rising costs and usage in senior care insurance,” Kevin Gade, COO at Bahl & Gaynor, told Reuters. Morningstar’s Julie Utterback noted the industry will be closely watching if the agency tweaks its assumptions before the rule is finalized. (Reuters)
Some desks were already anticipating more than just the initial numbers. JPMorgan analyst Lisa Gill pointed out that preliminary Medicare Advantage rates have been bumped up in eight of the past 10 years. That track record might ease early jitters if CMS hints at flexibility. (MarketWatch)
The risk of cuts remains evident. America’s Health Insurance Plans, a trade industry group, cautioned that “flat program funding” combined with rising medical expenses and increased care usage might jeopardize seniors’ coverage. If the proposal goes through, insurers could reduce benefits or shift more costs to members. (Ahip)
CVS will deliver its next clear update soon, with fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings set for Feb. 10. Investors will be focused on Aetna’s Medicare Advantage results following this rate update. (Cvshealth)
Traders will be closely watching the big insurers’ 2027 planning. Will they focus on benefit design, pricing discipline, and medical cost trends? Or hint that CMS might ease up on the final numbers?
The next major policy event is the comment deadline on Feb. 25, with CMS expected to release its final rate announcement by April 6. These dates could trigger another wave of volatility in the sector.
