Amsterdam, Jan 27, 2026, 14:51 CET — Regular session.
- ASML shares rose about 1% in Amsterdam ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report.
- Broker notes from the past day stayed mostly supportive ahead of the earnings release.
- The key question now: will ASML boost its 2026 sales forecast given the surge in AI-driven chip demand?
ASML shares rose around 1.1% to hover near 1,190 euros Tuesday, staying close to the day’s peak. Evercore ISI stuck to its buy rating, keeping a 1,300-euro price target as of Jan. 26. Barclays maintained its hold rating and a 1,200-euro target, according to Investing.
ASML’s earnings release is set for tomorrow, and investors are keen to spot any tweaks in its 2026 outlook after the stock’s recent rally. The company, a key player in a tight slice of the AI supply chain, has analysts watching for an upgrade from its current forecast of flat-to-modest sales growth next year. John West at semiconductor consultancy Yole Group dubbed ASML’s extreme ultraviolet tools “the only game in town.” Meanwhile, Mizuho’s Kevin Wang pointed to possible “China business upside” for 2026. TechInsights senior fellow Dan Hutcheson warned that ditching ASML would be like “swapping a Formula One engine mid-race.” (Reuters)
This matters now because ASML’s order backlog and production forecast act as a bellwether for spending appetite among leading chipmakers. A small tweak to its guidance could ripple through the entire semiconductor equipment sector’s projections.
Lithography involves printing patterns onto silicon wafers using light in chip manufacturing. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography uses a shorter wavelength than deep ultraviolet (DUV), key for crafting the smallest features in cutting-edge chips, like those powering top-tier AI processors.
Traders aren’t focused solely on the quarter’s figures—they’re listening closely to the tone. They want clues on whether demand is rising beyond the AI-driven spike and any updates on how quickly ASML can ramp up output of its premier machines.
ASML is set to publish its Q4 and full-year earnings at 0700 CET on Wednesday. CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen will address the media at 1100 CET, followed by an investor call scheduled for 1500 CET, according to the company’s investor page. (ASML)
Investors tend to focus on “order intake” — the new orders booked — instead of just the headline sales. This figure can swing wildly from quarter to quarter. A high order number might reflect timing quirks, whereas a low one could just signal customers delaying deliveries, not outright cancellations.
ASML faces competition from Japan’s Nikon and Canon, along with China’s SMEE, in the market for older DUV machines. Still, it remains the only supplier of EUV equipment for advanced chips. This unique position fuels the bullish case and accounts for the stock’s sharp moves whenever there are hints that major foundries or memory makers could scale back their investments.
After a strong run-up into earnings, the threat of a letdown is palpable. If management keeps a cautious tone for 2026, or if clients delay equipment deliveries and push orders out, the stock could slide fast—especially given the high bar already set.
Wednesday morning’s earnings and accompanying guidance will be the next major catalyst. Investors are focused on the 0700 CET announcement, eager to catch any signs from management about a more optimistic 2026 outlook—or whether they choose to stay cautious and keep expectations in check during the press conference and investor call.
