New York, January 27, 2026, 11:00 EST — Regular session
- Shares of Banco Bradesco (BBD) climbed roughly 4.5% in U.S. trading, following the upward trend seen among Brazilian bank ADRs
- Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation preview jumps to 4.50% year-on-year, hitting the upper limit of the target band
- All eyes are on Wednesday’s Copom decision and Bradesco’s earnings report due February 5
Shares of Banco Bradesco, traded in New York, climbed around 4.5% to hit $4.15 on Tuesday, reaching that level during the session. Itau Unibanco’s ADRs advanced about 4.7%, while Santander Brasil rose close to 3.5%.
The shift comes as investors adjust Brazil rate expectations following fresh inflation figures, with the central bank set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, January 28. Brazil’s IPCA-15 inflation preview jumped 0.20% in January, pushing the 12-month rate up to 4.50%, hitting the top of the target range. The IPCA-15 is a mid-month indicator that offers an early glimpse of official inflation. 1
William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the recent inflation uptick probably erased “lingering expectations” for an immediate rate cut at this week’s Copom meeting. Still, he anticipates easing will begin in March. 2
IBGE data revealed a mixed bag beneath the surface. Prices for food consumed at home ticked up 0.21%, snapping a seven-month streak of declines. The food and beverages category sped up to 0.31%, up from 0.13% in December. Meanwhile, São Paulo saw a slight dip, with its reading dropping 0.04%. 3
Traders are focused less on today’s data release and more on the central bank’s messaging. The market has mostly priced in a Selic rate cut for March, now turning its attention to how low rates might fall by late 2026, according to Broadcast. Carla Argenta, CM Capital’s chief economist, said a clear signal for cuts this week seems unlikely. BTG Pactual partner and chief economist Mansueto Almeida, however, expects there could be room for a 25-basis-point cut as soon as Wednesday. 4
Brazil’s major banks frequently move in step with interest rate shifts. Falling borrowing costs tend to boost credit demand and relieve stress on borrowers. At the same time, the trajectory of rate cuts can alter the margins they earn on loans and deposits.
Bradesco has a key event coming up fast. The bank will report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 5, right after markets close, followed by a conference call on February 6. 5
The rate trade can flip quickly. Should policymakers signal a hawkish stance—meaning tighter policy—due to persistent inflation or worries over election-year currency volatility, the surge in Brazilian financials could vanish just as fast as it showed up.
U.S. rates are lurking in the background. A sudden surge in Treasury yields can overshadow local stories, rattling emerging-market assets through shifts in currencies and risk appetite.
