New York, January 27, 2026, 11:30 EST — Regular session
- Eli Lilly shares edged up in midday trading, standing out amid a weaker health-care sector
- Roche’s Phase II obesity drug results highlighted just how packed the upcoming pipeline has become
- Investors are turning their focus to Lilly’s Feb. 4 results, seeking clues on demand, supply, and pricing.
Eli Lilly and Co shares edged up 0.4% to $1,067.38 Tuesday, after fluctuating between $1,053.57 and $1,073.39. The S&P 500 climbed roughly 0.5%, but a health-care sector ETF slipped almost 1%.
The shift was minor, yet it came amid renewed focus on the obesity drug race. Investors view Lilly’s weight-loss lineup as a rare growth driver, making any new data from potential competitors influential for the market.
Roche reported that its experimental obesity drug CT-388 achieved up to 22.5% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 48 weeks in a mid-stage trial, focusing on participants who strictly followed the treatment. When including patients who lagged behind the regimen, the placebo-adjusted weight loss was 18.3%. The company plans to launch two Phase III trials this quarter. Roche’s development chief Manu Chakravarthy noted the “very steep linear trajectory” with “no plateau,” suggesting the drug’s efficacy could rise further. 1
CT-388 is a once-weekly shot belonging to the dual GLP-1/GIP class, like Lilly’s tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity. This is crucial since the coming years will focus on holding market share and, down the line, maintaining pricing power in a sector analysts estimate could reach $150 billion annually by the early 2030s.
Shares of Novo Nordisk, Lilly’s chief rival in obesity, slipped during the session, underscoring how investors often lump the sector together despite sparse company-specific updates.
Outside of obesity stats, pharmaceutical companies are selling Wall Street on a more mundane AI use case: cutting through the paperwork and logistics involved in trials and regulatory filings. TD Cowen analyst Brendan Smith warned it could be “another one to three years” before investors see clear evidence of AI accelerating drug development, despite firms like Lilly expanding their AI collaborations. 2
For Lilly investors, the immediate concern is straightforward compared to the long-term AI potential: is demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound still growing, and can supply keep pace without margins slipping as the company broadens access?
The downside risk is clear. Should insurers tighten coverage, pricing face political or payer backlash, or competing drugs prove significantly better for weight loss or tolerability, Lilly’s market growth assumptions could collapse fast.
Roche’s results won’t dent Lilly’s sales this year, but they reinforce the growing chorus of credible challengers stepping up against Novo and Lilly. That pressure could limit how high investors bid for long-term obesity earnings, even if the upcoming quarter appears solid.
Lilly is set to report its fourth-quarter results on February 4, with a 10 a.m. Eastern conference call to follow. Investors will focus on demand trends, supply insights, and pipeline updates to gauge how long Lilly can maintain its lead. 3
