NEW YORK, July 18, 2026, 18:08 EDT
- Vistra cleared 10,924.4 megawatts at $325 per megawatt-day for PJM’s 2028/29 auction.
- A preliminary calculation puts its gross annual run-rate at $1.296 billion, up 0.8%.
- Shares closed Friday at $155.44, up 1.9%, but fell 2.2% for the week.
Vistra Corp. NYSE:VST kept its implied PJM capacity run-rate near $1.30 billion, despite a lower auction price. Higher cleared volume offset the decline.
That is the key investor signal. Vistra’s cleared capacity rose 3.4% from the previous auction. The clearing price fell 2.5% to the regulatory cap.
A preliminary 365-day calculation produces a $1.296 billion gross run-rate. The prior award implied about $1.286 billion.
U.S. markets were closed for the weekend. Vistra ended Friday at $155.44, up 1.9%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.0% to 7,457.69.
Peer performance varied sharply. Constellation Energy Corp. NASDAQ:CEG gained 0.4% for the week. NRG Energy Inc. NYSE:NRG fell 8.1%, while Talen Energy Corp. NASDAQ:TLN lost 3.5%. Vistra outperformed NRG and Talen, but trailed Constellation.
Vistra’s auction disclosures show how volume absorbed the weaker price.
| Metric | PJM 2028/29 | PJM 2027/28 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleared capacity | 10,924.4 MW | 10,566.1 MW | +3.4% |
| Weighted price | $325.00/MW-day | $333.44/MW-day | -2.5% |
| Gross 365-day run-rate | $1.296 billion | $1.286 billion | +0.8% |
Preliminary reporter calculation. It assumes 365 days and is not company guidance.
Volume did the work. Each cleared megawatt carried less value, but more megawatts qualified.
PJM Interconnection cleared 138,318 MW across its system. The auction carried a total value of $16.4 billion. Yet PJM still reported a 6,831-MW shortfall against its reliability target.
PJM President and Chief Executive David Mills said: “Demand for electricity continues to grow faster than electricity supply.” PJM Inside Lines
Bank of Nova Scotia (TSE:BNS) analyst Andrew Weisel raised his Vistra target to $298 from $293. He maintained an Outperform rating. Still, Weisel called high pricing “unsustainable” and expects “meaningful changes in the next 3-5 years.” TipRanks
Risks: The $1.296 billion estimate is preliminary and gross. Outages, penalties, settlements and rule changes could reduce realized value. It also excludes operating costs and taxes.
Next week, investors will watch PJM demand, regional power prices and gas costs. Vistra’s next scheduled results are due August 7 at 10 a.m. EDT.
