Diageo share price rebounds, but JPMorgan still sees downside ahead of interims

Diageo share price rebounds, but JPMorgan still sees downside ahead of interims

London, Jan 28, 2026, 09:01 GMT — Regular session

Diageo’s shares nudged up roughly 0.8% in early London trading on Wednesday, hitting 1,622.5 pence by 0900 GMT. The stock fluctuated between 1,603.5 pence and 1,622.5 pence. 1

The slight gain follows Diageo’s 2.75% drop to 1,610 pence yesterday, lagging behind a stronger overall market. Despite the bounce, the shares remain roughly 36% below their 52-week peak of 2,535 pence reached last year. 2

JPMorgan maintained a neutral view on the maker of Johnnie Walker whisky, cautioning that the spirits sector’s recent rebound might be short-lived. The bank highlighted ongoing pressure on price/mix — the combined impact of pricing and customer buying patterns — alongside margin squeezes as the industry navigates destocking, where distributors cut back on new orders to clear existing stock. Analyst Celine Pannuti noted, “We still see downside to consensus,” pointing to Pernod Ricard and Rémy Cointreau as particularly vulnerable to earnings downgrades. 3

Jefferies maintained its buy rating on Diageo, holding the target price steady at 2,000 pence, analyst Edward Mundy said in a note. 4

For Diageo, the debate frequently centers on what consumers choose to drink, not merely the quantity. Premium labels drive profits, yet discounting combined with softer demand can swiftly disrupt that balance.

Diageo last week stuck to its fiscal 2026 forecast, projecting organic net sales growth — excluding currency and deal impacts — to be flat or slightly down. The company pointed to Chinese white spirits and a softer U.S. consumer market as key headwinds. It expects low- to mid-single-digit growth in organic operating profit, driven in part by cost savings from its Accelerate programme. 5

Other risks linger in the background. The UK government is considering stricter alcohol labelling rules, such as mandating health warnings and nutritional details. Industry groups warn this could push up costs and hit sales. 6

Traders are eyeing if broker caution will spark another wave of forecast cuts ahead of the reporting date. Signs of increased promotions in key markets could pressure the shares once more.

Diageo will release its interim results for the six months ending Dec. 31 on Feb. 25. Investors will be watching closely for clues on demand, pricing trends, and any signs of destocking easing. 7

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