SYDNEY, Jan 29, 2026, 17:08 AEDT — The market has closed.
- Woodside shares ended the day 0.7% higher, closing at A$25.16.
- The company forecasted 2026 output to fall short of last year’s record, citing scheduled downtime at Pluto LNG and the timing of Scarborough.
- Traders are eyeing oil’s geopolitical premium and Australia’s Feb. 3 rate decision as Woodside gears up to report on Feb. 24.
Woodside Energy Group (WDS.AX) shares ended Thursday up 0.7%, closing at A$25.16. The gains came despite initial jitters over the company’s reduced production forecast for 2026. 1
The stock’s late-week surge is key as Woodside looks to lock in gains off record 2025 production. This comes ahead of a maintenance-heavy stretch this year and a more gradual Scarborough ramp-up.
Oil is pulling its weight as well. The local rate talk has shifted following hotter inflation data, and that ripple effect is coloring the broader market mood—even though the trigger lies beyond energy.
Woodside’s latest report set the tone. December-quarter revenue dropped 13% year-on-year to $3.04 billion, dragged down by average realised prices slipping to $57 a barrel of oil equivalent (boe) — a common unit that converts gas output into oil terms. The company left Scarborough’s progress steady at 94% complete and maintained its 2026 production guidance between 172 million and 186 million boe. Acting CEO Liz Westcott said, “We are looking forward to first LNG from Scarborough in the fourth quarter of this year.” 2
Woodside submitted that quarterly update for U.S. investors in a Form 6-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Jan. 28. 3
Analyst Nik Burns of Jarden noted the market had already factored in weaker 2026 production and would probably “take it in its stride,” recalling how Woodside began last year cautiously before upgrading twice. Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee added the result underscores a move toward more conservative guidance. 4
Commodity markets are fueling the move. Brent crude gained 1.5% to $69.39 a barrel in Asian trading, while U.S. WTI jumped 1.7% to $64.27. Reuters highlighted rising worries that the U.S. might launch an attack on Iran, a key OPEC supplier. Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, pointed to the growing U.S.-Iran tensions as a key factor driving the “supply-risk narrative.” 5
Australian rate expectations firmed after underlying inflation came in hotter than anticipated. The trimmed mean CPI — which excludes the most volatile prices — jumped 0.9% in the December quarter, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%, Reuters reported. Swaps now price in a 73% chance of a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Feb. 3 meeting. “Alongside strong labor market data and capacity constraints, the case for tighter monetary policy is clear,” said Cherelle Murphy, EY’s chief economist. 6
Woodside’s longer-term options resurfaced this week with Greater Sunrise back in focus. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Timor-Leste’s Xanana Gusmao called on the joint venture to push ahead “as soon as possible.” This follows Woodside and Timor-Leste’s December agreement to explore a 5 million-tonne-per-year LNG project for the field, which holds an estimated 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas, Reuters reported. 7
The next move for the stock won’t be straightforward. A drop in crude prices could quickly put pressure on bids. On top of that, any delays in project timelines or a prolonged Pluto shutdown would weigh on volumes—just when investors want clear answers on costs, cash returns, and who will take over as CEO.
Friday’s session kicks off with a focus on oil prices and the latest rate updates. Traders will then shift their attention to the Feb. 3 RBA decision, followed by Woodside’s full-year results and briefing set for Feb. 24.
