LONDON, Jan 29, 2026, 08:04 GMT — Regular session
- Rio Tinto slipped 2 pence to 6,749 pence in London trading
- Glencore’s copper production for 2025 dropped 11% to 851,600 tons; Rio has until Feb. 5 to meet its bid-or-walk deadline
- Copper surged to new highs overnight, putting miners back in the spotlight
Rio Tinto’s shares slipped slightly in London Thursday as investors absorbed a disappointing copper output update from potential takeover target Glencore ahead of the Feb. 5 offer deadline. Rio (RIO.L) dipped 2 pence, or roughly 0.03%, to 6,749 pence, still trading near its 52-week high. Glencore (GLEN.L) reported 2025 copper production fell 11% to 851,600 metric tons, hitting the bottom of its expected range. 1
This matters because copper keeps getting repriced, and Rio stands out as one of the most liquid proxies. A deal between Rio and Glencore would shake up the sector and quickly pull regulators into the picture.
Copper’s rally is pushing ahead despite weak spot demand from China, while iron ore has lost the momentum it showed in past cycles. This dynamic keeps the spotlight firmly on large, diversified miners and cuts little slack for any unexpected moves.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange surged 6.63% to $13,953.50 a ton, hitting an intraday high of $13,967, Reuters reported. The broader metals rally gained steam amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a softer dollar. On the Shanghai market, the most-active copper contract climbed 6.35% to 108,740 yuan a ton. Meanwhile, the Yangshan copper premium, which tracks Chinese demand for imported copper, dropped to $20 a ton—its lowest level since July 2024. 2
Iron ore, still Rio’s biggest profit engine, is seeing supply tighten from more players. Vale announced it pumped out 336.1 million metric tons of iron ore in 2025, marking the first time since 2018 that its output surpassed Rio’s Pilbara mines. Just last week, Rio reported 327.3 million tons from Pilbara alone; Rio’s total iron ore haul, including Canada, hit 336.6 million tons. 3
The takeover angle is evident in recent filings. On Wednesday, a Rule 8.3 disclosure revealed that State Street Global Advisors & Affiliates held 2.19961% of Rio Tinto plc shares, noting minor buys and sells on Jan. 27. The filing also mentioned disclosures related to Glencore. Form 8.3, under the UK Takeover Code, mandates investors owning 1% or more to report transactions during an offer period. 4
Iron ore prices have held firm for months. Singapore Exchange futures closed at $105.70 a ton Tuesday, hovering between $100 and $109 since August, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell noted. This stability comes despite China’s 2025 steel output dropping 4.4% from 2024 to 960.1 million metric tons. 5
Rio is hitting key milestones soon. The company reported last week that fourth-quarter iron ore and copper output exceeded expectations. It plans to release full-year results on Feb. 19. Analyst Glyn Lawcock at Barrenjoey described it as “a solid quarter … a beat across the board,” in his note. 6
A merger with Glencore won’t be straightforward, even if Rio pushes hard. Analysts and lawyers told Reuters earlier this month that Chinese regulators might demand asset sales to approve the deal. Lawcock noted, “China will see this as an opportunity to squeeze out assets.” Meanwhile, Mark Kelly, CEO of advisory firm MKI Global Partners, described the process as “a long, complicated” regulatory battle.
The copper rally is hitting a snag: demand. Chinese import data is softening even as futures climb, and a move in the dollar or geopolitical tensions could quickly dampen metal buying. On the deal front, uncertainty looms — if Rio pulls out on Feb. 5, much of the optional value baked into the shares could disappear overnight.
Traders are sticking close to copper and iron ore screens, alongside a steady stream of takeover-code disclosures. The next major date to watch is Feb. 5, with Rio’s full-year results due on Feb. 19.
