London, Jan 29, 2026, 08:47 GMT — Regular session.
- Glencore shares jumped roughly 3% following the release of its full-year 2025 production report.
- Copper production dropped 11% compared to last year but remained within the company’s projected range.
- Traders are eyeing a potential Rio Tinto bid due by Feb. 5, alongside a surge in copper prices hitting record highs.
Glencore shares climbed 3.2% to 521.9 pence by 0820 GMT after the miner and commodity trader released its full-year 2025 production report. Copper output dipped 11% but remained within the company’s guidance range. Chief executive Gary Nagle said, “We expect to report FY 2025 Marketing Adjusted EBIT around the mid-point,” referring to earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). 1
The update comes at a tricky time for the stock. Copper prices are surging, and investors are eager to see how much Glencore can actually supply to this rally — plus what its trading division earned amid a year of wild swings.
Deal speculation is swirling. Traders are on edge ahead of a potential takeover bid from Rio Tinto, which Reuters says could arrive by Feb. 5. That deadline is fueling the tension. In its latest update, Glencore gave 2026 copper output guidance between 810,000 and 870,000 tons, citing lower ore grades and water shortages at its Collahuasi mine in Chile, a joint venture with Anglo American. 2
Glencore’s copper output from its own sources hit 851,600 tons in 2025, slipping from 951,600 tons in 2024. The company pointed to lower grades and recoveries due to mine sequencing at multiple sites. Still, it noted that improved grades and recoveries in the second half helped lift production toward year-end.
Elsewhere, the report revealed a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc production, while cobalt output dipped 5% to 36,100 tons. Glencore’s steelmaking coal surged to 32.5 million tons, but energy coal inched down slightly to 98.0 million tons.
Copper prices took the lead in market sentiment Thursday. The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange climbed 6.3% to $13,913.50 a ton by 0700 GMT, after hitting a record high of $14,125. Meanwhile, Shanghai’s most-active copper contract also touched a new peak earlier in the day. This surge came despite weaker signals out of China, where the Yangshan premium — measuring demand for imported copper — dropped to $20 a ton, its lowest level since July 2024. 3
Deal disclosures are still coming in slowly. A Form 8.3 filing — the UK’s required takeover report on positions and trades — from Geode Capital Management revealed stakes and trading in Glencore and mentioned Rio Tinto as well. 4
But this stock isn’t simply a copper play. Lower ore grades, water restrictions at major mines, and Congo’s cobalt export quotas could all hit volumes and sales just when it hurts. A dip in metals prices would also weigh on what’s already a hefty valuation. Plus, if Rio Tinto stays quiet, the takeover buzz might vanish quickly.
Glencore ended Wednesday at 505.8 pence. The next key date is Feb. 18, when full-year results drop, followed by a webcast that morning. Traders are also watching for any Rio Tinto news ahead of Feb. 5. 5
