London, Jan 29, 2026, 09:20 GMT — Regular session
Diageo (DGE.L) shares climbed 1.9%, hitting 1,653.5 pence in early London trading on Thursday. The stock fluctuated between 1,637.5 and 1,689.5 pence during the session. 1
This shift is significant as investors grapple with pinpointing a bottom in European spirits. Demand remains patchy in both the United States and China, while distributors have been “destocking,” offloading inventory rather than replenishing stock.
Diageo won’t report again until its interim results next month, so the market is left to lean on peer reports and analyst notes. Traders keep circling back to two key questions: can pricing stay firm, and have volumes finally stabilized?
French cognac producer Rémy Cointreau reported third-quarter sales growth that outpaced expectations, driven notably by stronger demand in the U.S., lifting its shares by around 8.5%. The company cited “solid sales” across the Americas but noted persistent challenges in China. Its “organic” growth figures exclude the impact of currency fluctuations and acquisitions. JP Morgan analysts cautioned that pricing pressures could still weigh on results this year and next. 2
JPMorgan remains cautious on Diageo. Analyst Celine Pannuti maintained a neutral rating, highlighting what she called “downside to consensus” for the spirits subsector. She pointed to weak price/mix trends and margin pressures as key concerns. 3
Diageo’s shares have swung this week. On Tuesday, the stock dropped 2.75%, ending the day at 16.10 pounds. It’s still trading roughly 36.5% beneath its 52-week peak of 25.35 pounds, according to MarketWatch data. 4
The company last overhauled its outlook in November, slashing sales and profit forecasts following a period CEO Nik Jhangiani described as “unsatisfactory.” Diageo now anticipates flat or slightly declining sales for fiscal 2026, with operating profit growth limited to low- to mid-single digits. Struggles in the US and China markets are dragging on results. 5
Price/mix — which captures both price shifts and how consumers move between brands — has become a go-to metric in the sector. Boosting sales through promotions might drive volume, but it often squeezes profit margins.
Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling recently flagged a sharp downside risk, calling the industry’s inventory pile-up “unprecedented.” If demand fails to rebound quickly, steep discounting could be inevitable. 6
The key issue now: will Thursday’s gain hold or prove just a short-lived bounce? If destocking persists and price cuts become widespread, investors are likely to lower their earnings forecasts for the remainder of the year.
Diageo is set to release its interim results for the six months ended Dec. 31 on Feb. 25, accompanied by a dividend announcement. 7
