New York, Jan 29, 2026, 06:30 EST — Premarket
- Meta jumped 7.9% in premarket trading following a raise in its spending forecast and revenue results that beat expectations.
- Microsoft dropped 6.4% amid renewed questions over its cloud growth and the expenses tied to its AI investments.
- Traders are eyeing Apple’s after-hours results, with Alphabet and Amazon’s reports next week set to shed more light on AI demand.
U.S.-listed AI stocks looked set for a volatile open Thursday. Meta Platforms surged 7.9% in premarket action, while Microsoft dropped 6.4% following its earnings report. Stock index futures ticked up slightly after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged the day before. “Traders are no longer rewarding the biggest spenders,” said Jake Behan, head of capital markets at Direxion. Reuters
The shift is clear: investors are no longer just tracking AI buzz—they’re watching the dollars. Capital expenditure, or capex—the cash poured into data centers, chips, and power—is climbing sharply. The key question now is when that spending will translate into revenue and profit.
That bar showed up within hours. Meta jumped roughly 10% in after-hours trading following its report, while Microsoft dropped 6.5%. Some investors flagged Microsoft’s heavy dependence on OpenAI, which makes up 45% of its backlog—contracted business not yet booked. “All else equal, the market would typically be concerned,” said John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. Reuters
Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to between $115 billion and $135 billion, marking a 73% increase as CEO Mark Zuckerberg pushes toward what he calls “personal superintelligence.” The company reported a 24% rise in advertising revenue for the quarter ending Dec. 31 and sees first-quarter revenue hitting $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, topping analyst estimates. Reuters
The numbers are huge, though the market’s patience now hinges on the source of the cash—and just how fast it returns.
Microsoft projected Azure revenue growth between 37% and 38% for the current quarter, revealing that capital spending in the December quarter hit $37.5 billion — a jump of nearly 66% from the previous year. CEO Satya Nadella also revealed that M365 Copilot, its $30-per-month workplace AI tool, now counts 15 million annual users.
Still, traders are fixated on one key issue: is the AI bill outpacing the returns, particularly as competition heats up in enterprise tools and cloud services.
Nvidia grabbed attention as CEO Jensen Huang revealed China is still wrapping up the license for its H200 chip. “The actual license for H200 is being finalised,” Huang told reporters in Taipei, adding he hopes for “a favourable decision.” He also expressed interest in investing in OpenAI, following reports that Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are discussing a combined investment of up to $60 billion. Reuters
A report from Reuters on Wednesday revealed that China has given the green light for ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent to purchase over 400,000 H200 chips combined. However, sources say the approvals come with tight restrictions, making it unlikely these will lead to actual orders. The H200 chip boasts about six times the performance of Nvidia’s H20, according to the report.
The downside risk is clear: capex keeps rising, margins get squeezed, and customers hold off on new deals, focusing instead on squeezing value from what they’ve already purchased. Supply bottlenecks — spanning GPUs to memory — could limit cloud expansion despite solid demand. Meanwhile, China licensing stays a policy tool rather than a fixed timeline.
Investors are now turning their attention to Apple’s earnings due after Thursday’s close, followed by Alphabet and Amazon’s reports next week. These results will shed more light on AI spending discipline and reveal if the broader market remains ready to back it.
