Helsinki, Jan 29, 2026, 14:22 EET — Regular session
- Nordea shares slipped 1.3% following Q4 results, as investors zero in on interest income amid recent rate cuts
- Bank suggests boosting its 2025 dividend and hints at a possible mid-2026 payout
- Traders are tuning into management’s webcast and the March AGM, looking for specifics on capital returns
Shares of Nordea Bank Abp slipped 1.3% to 16.53 euros on Thursday, marking continued volatility for Nordic banks as investors balance declining interest income with robust capital returns. (Investing)
This shift is significant as Nordea emerges from a stretch where rising policy rates boosted lending margins. With the rate cycle now reversed, investors are scrambling to figure out what “normal” earnings truly are—and how sustainable the recent dividend levels will be heading into 2026.
Bank stocks often boil down to one key metric: net interest income, which is what a bank makes on loans after covering funding costs. When that number dips, investors dig deeper, looking for signs like fee growth, cost reductions, balance-sheet expansion, or credit losses holding steady.
Nordea posted a fourth-quarter operating profit of 1.513 billion euros, up 3% year-on-year, despite net interest income slipping 5% due to policy rate cuts. Operating expenses fell 3%. Net loan losses totaled 49 million euros, equivalent to 5 basis points — with one basis point equal to 0.01 percentage point. The bank’s common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio, a key measure of capital strength, came in at 15.7%. CEO Frank Vang-Jensen said the bank “finished 2025 well, with solid fourth-quarter profitability supported by growth in business volumes and lower costs.” (Nordea)
The board proposed a 0.96 euro dividend per share for 2025 and plans to seek shareholder approval for a mid-year dividend in 2026, linked to roughly half of the first-half net profit, capped at 3 billion euros. Nordea also confirmed its 500 million euro share buyback, launched in December, will continue until May 8 at the latest. The bank has scheduled a results webcast for 11:15 EET, with its annual general meeting set for March 24 and first-quarter earnings due April 22. (Nordea)
Buybacks have kicked off. Nordea announced it bought back 395,298 shares on Jan. 28 across Helsinki, Stockholm, and Copenhagen. The weighted average price was 16.82 euros, costing roughly 6.65 million euros in total. (Euronext)
Jefferies maintained its “Buy” rating on Nordea, setting a target price of 17.80 euros. Analyst Alexander Demetriou highlighted a positive surprise in pre-provision profits and the CET1 ratio, noting the dividend came in “slightly” above expectations. (Wallstreet Online)
Still, the share response hinted that some investors sought clearer signals on interest income as deposit and loan rates adjust downward. The market often penalizes even the slightest sign of peaking earnings momentum, despite rising headline profits.
The risk scenario is clear: quicker-than-anticipated rate cuts in the Nordics, intensified mortgage competition, or a dip in credit quality might drag down earnings and slow buybacks. On top of that, regulators could tighten capital requirements, squeezing the space for payouts.
Investors will be tuning in to management’s webcast Thursday for updates on margin trends, loan growth, and plans for capital returns. Afterward, focus moves to the March 24 AGM vote on the 2025 dividend and then to Nordea’s first-quarter report due April 22.
