SYDNEY, Jan 30, 2026, 16:48 AEDT — After-hours
- Shares of Mineral Resources dropped 6.3% to A$57.15 following the ASX close
- MinRes raised its FY26 lithium volume guidance and showed a drop in net debt in the December-quarter update
- Attention shifts to the half-year results due February 20 and any update on Bald Hill’s restart plans
Shares of Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN.AX) dropped 6.3% on Friday, slipping to A$57.15 from a prior close of A$61.02. The miner’s quarterly update sparked a mixed reaction as investors weighed output upgrades against new concerns on the balance sheet and accounting. 1
This matters because MinRes is one of the ASX’s clearest signals on whether rising lithium prices are translating quickly enough into cash to reduce debt. While the company operates across lithium, iron ore, and mining services, its share price usually reacts to the most pressing factor at play.
The next catalyst is just around the corner. MinRes will release its half-year results on Feb. 20, and investors are expected to dig into cash flow, costs, and any balance-sheet adjustments linked to previous deals. 2
MinRes reported on Thursday that Onslow Iron shipped 8.7 million wet metric tonnes in the December quarter, with free-on-board costs at A$50 a tonne. It sold 143,000 dry metric tonnes of SC6 spodumene, a lithium concentrate, and raised its FY26 lithium guidance to 260,000–280,000 dmt at Wodgina and 190,000–210,000 dmt at Mt Marion. The company also warned that Wodgina costs are set to increase in the second half due to processing lower-grade ore. Net debt dropped to around A$4.9 billion, while liquidity climbed above A$1.4 billion. MinRes confirmed a planned US$765 million POSCO deal expected to close in the first half of 2026 and flagged a non-cash impairment on former Resource Development Group assets, along with about A$220 million in purchase price adjustments in its interim accounts. 3
MinRes reported its average realized spodumene price at US$1,094 a tonne on a cost-insurance-freight basis, marking a 29% jump from the previous quarter. The company also posted an average iron ore price of US$91 per dry metric tonne. Additionally, it hedged around 25% of its attributable iron ore production through March 2026 using “zero-cost collars”—options that cushion price drops but cap upside. Capital expenditure for the quarter stood at about A$200 million, while net interest paid was roughly A$180 million. 4
During the analyst call, CFO Mark Wilson called lithium “a volatile commodity” and said the company plans to be “very prudent” while considering whether to restart Bald Hill. He noted Wodgina’s third train will keep running “opportunistically” and mentioned that final exports from Wonmunna are set for April as the Pilbara Hub shifts focus to Lamb Creek. 5
Mining stocks took a broad hit, dragging the sector down 3.4% mid-session, MarketIndex reported, as copper, gold, and nickel prices slipped. On the broker front, sentiment brightened on MinRes: Macquarie bumped its rating to Outperform with a target of A$70, RBC also kept Outperform but raised its target to A$67, while Jarden stayed on Sell but upped its target to A$21.70. 6
The choppy action was evident among other players as well. IGO shares dropped 8.41% the day after its quarterly report, even though the company highlighted climbing lithium prices. The sharp move reflects how fast sentiment can flip from price optimism to worries over execution and costs. 7
That said, the risks for MinRes remain. Lithium prices can plunge quickly, ore grades may fluctuate, and rising costs could offset volume gains. A write-down—while not an immediate cash hit—would only raise fresh doubts about which projects will restart, which will be postponed, and how much flexibility the balance sheet actually offers.
Monday’s open will be key to seeing if the stock can regain footing after last week’s sell-off. After that, focus shifts to the half-year report on Feb. 20 and any new details on the POSCO timeline and the Bald Hill study.
