Sydney, Jan 30, 2026, 16:52 AEDT — Market closed.
- BHP shares slipped on Friday, ending a two-day winning streak.
- Copper surged past $14,000 a tonne for the first time yesterday, before swinging sharply.
- Central bank actions dominate the week ahead as traders prepare for BHP’s earnings due mid-February.
BHP Group Ltd shares fell 2.0% to close at A$50.46 on Friday, slipping from a session high of A$52.09. The S&P/ASX 200 benchmark dropped 0.65%. 1
The pullback matters because BHP is a heavyweight in Australian equities and a rough proxy for how investors feel about bulk commodities and industrial metals. When it turns, the materials sector usually follows. Sometimes that’s the whole story.
This week has been all about timing. Traders are caught between a sharp rally in metals prices and a sudden shift in interest-rate expectations, both in Australia and abroad. That combination can send miners moving fast, even without any new company headlines.
BHP kept quiet last week, with no new announcements on the ASX, according to exchange data. 2
Copper led the charge in the sector, surging to a record $14,527.50 a tonne on Thursday at the London Metal Exchange before retreating from that peak later in the session, Reuters reported. Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets noted it was copper’s biggest one-day jump in years, pointing to “intense speculative trading” in China. 3
The surge has investors split on whether to jump in or pull back. Dan Smith, managing director at Commodity Market Analytics, called the volatility “brutal to try and trade.” At the same time, Marex strategist Alastair Munro flagged the upcoming Lunar New Year break in China as a potential trigger for a correction. According to Reuters, the Shanghai Futures Exchange won’t hold an evening session on Feb. 13 and will stay closed until Feb. 24. 4
Macro jitters hit markets as Reuters flagged Kevin Warsh, viewed as a hawkish pick, as the frontrunner to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve. Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney, called him “familiar and credible.” 5
Back home, rate talk is heating up again. Australia’s trimmed mean CPI — a core inflation measure that excludes volatile items — climbed 0.9% in the December quarter and 3.4% year-on-year, Reuters reported. Markets now put the chance of a rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Feb. 3 meeting at 73%. “The case for tighter monetary policy is clear,” said Cherelle Murphy, EY’s chief economist. 6
Iron ore continues to be a major wildcard for BHP. China’s crude steel output for 2025 dropped to 960.1 million tonnes, marking a 4.4% decline from 2024, according to Reuters columnist Clyde Russell. Yet, despite that, China’s iron ore imports surged to a record 1.26 billion tonnes, with prices staying above $100 a tonne for several months. 7
Miners face two clear risks. A steep drop in copper prices would reveal whether recent gains were driven by speculative bets instead of genuine end-user demand. At the same time, a decline in iron ore could slam the sector’s key profit driver, just as rising interest rates dampen risk appetite.
BHP is set to release its half-year results on Feb. 17, around 8:00 a.m. Melbourne time, as per its financial calendar. 8
