London, Jan 30, 2026, 08:59 GMT — Regular session
- Compass Group shares gained 0.8% early Friday but remain near a 52-week low
- UBS calls the recent dip overdone and sticks with its buy rating
- Attention turns to the first-quarter update and AGM set for Feb. 5
Shares of Compass Group PLC climbed 0.8% to 2,194 pence in early London trading on Friday, pulling back slightly from a recent 52-week low following several days of losses. The stock’s last close was 2,176.5 pence, based on delayed pricing data. 1
That modest rebound is notable since the FTSE 100 caterer has been moving like a pure sentiment play recently. Investors have been quick to sell off anything linked to office foot traffic, despite the company’s contract structure that typically cushions daily fluctuations.
Next week marks a key checkpoint. Compass will report on first-quarter trading, with investors eager for updates on volumes, pricing, and costs amid easing inflation.
UBS analyst Ivar Billfalk-Kelly says some investors are labeling Compass an “AI loser,” but he calls that worry “overcooked.” He argues any slowdown from job cuts should be minimal in the short term. He maintained a “buy” rating with a 12-month target of 2,985 pence. Billfalk-Kelly highlighted Compass’ solid pricing power, noting U.S. food-away-from-home inflation remains above the price hikes suggested by management. He also cited Aramark as a comparable peer. 2
The real issue isn’t robots serving lunch. It’s whether firms will slash staff and trim office days, and if caterers can keep hiking prices without hurting demand. When brokers mention “forward earnings,” they’re referring to profits forecast for the coming year—the key metric many investors rely on to judge if this selloff has gone too far.
Global markets took another hit from volatility on Thursday, rattled by geopolitical tensions that drove oil prices up. Investors grew uneasy about growth-sensitive stocks, adding to the pressure. 3
Compass will release its first-quarter trading update at 07:00 GMT on Thursday, Feb. 5. An analyst call is set to follow at 09:00 GMT, according to the company’s invitation.
The company will also conduct its annual general meeting that same morning in London, offering shareholders the opportunity to question management on demand forecasts and capital return plans. 4
Compass previously guided investors to anticipate roughly 10% growth in underlying operating profit and about 7% organic revenue increase for the upcoming financial year, driven by rising demand in workplace dining and fresh business gains in the U.S. 5
The near-term risk boils down to this: if the Feb. 5 update reveals softer volumes, weaker net new business, or rising costs from wages and food inputs, the stock may fail to stay above recent lows. Investor chatter about buybacks could shift fast if management hints at prioritizing balance-sheet flexibility.
Traders are holding their breath to see if this early surge will hold up or fade into a short-lived bounce. Eyes are now on Feb. 5, when the first-quarter trading update drops at 07:00 GMT, with the AGM scheduled for later that same morning.
