Sydney, Jan 30, 2026, 21:55 AEDT — Market closed
- ASX 200 dropped 0.65% to 8,869.1, weighed down by miners and gold shares
- Hotter-than-expected core inflation pushed markets to increase expectations for a rate hike in February
- Traders are turning their attention to the RBA decision and the upcoming earnings season for cues.
Australian shares closed lower on Friday as miners gave back early gains and slipped by the session’s end. The S&P/ASX 200 lost 58.4 points, or 0.65%, finishing at 8,869.1. Meanwhile, the All Ordinaries fell 0.78% to 9,164.8. The Australian dollar dropped to 70.02 U.S. cents from 70.87 late Thursday. 1
The late-day dip capped a volatile month, as investors locked in gains and eyed the weeks ahead. Markets are now pricing in more than a 75% chance of a 25 basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which currently holds the cash rate at 3.6%, at next week’s meeting. Marc Jocum from Global X ETFs highlighted the importance of earnings: “The earnings season will be central in determining whether recent gains are justified at the stock level.” Miners took the biggest hit, dropping 3.5%, with gold stocks down 5.7%. Rio Tinto slid 3.5% and BHP fell 1.8%. On the other hand, financials edged up 0.5%, while major banks rose between 0.5% and 0.8%. 2
Talk of a rate hike intensified after the trimmed-mean consumer price index—a core inflation measure excluding volatile prices—increased by 0.9% in the December quarter, driving the annual rate up to 3.4%. Headline inflation was 3.8%, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Swaps now price in a 73% probability of a rate move next week. ANZ’s Adam Boyton commented, “We think the RBA will conclude that demand is running ahead of supply.” 3
Nine Entertainment jumped 4.59% to A$1.14, with AMP up 3.50% and ResMed rising 3.16%, according to Investing.com data. On the downside, Liontown plunged 9.51%, Genesis Minerals dropped 8.91%, and Newmont slid 7.84%. The S&P/ASX 200 VIX, which tracks expected market volatility, climbed 6.57% to 11.18. Gold futures shed 1.82%, hitting $5,257.10 an ounce, while U.S. crude dipped 1.65% to $64.34 a barrel. 4
Whitehaven, the coal miner, reported managed run-of-mine (ROM) production climbed to 11.0 million tonnes in the December quarter, marking a 21% jump from the September quarter. Net debt stood near A$0.7 billion as of December 31. Managing director Paul Flynn attributed the Queensland output boost to “good weather and mining conditions.” The company also confirmed half-year unit costs around A$135 a tonne, staying within its forecast. 5
Still, the rally shows signs of fatigue. A steeper drop in commodities would add strain on miners, while earnings misses might shake a market that’s already baked in plenty of optimism.
Investors face a shifting policy narrative. Higher rates would push up borrowing costs, hitting rate-sensitive sectors like property and consumer discretionary. Banks might gain from rising rates, but only to a certain extent.
The next key event hits on Feb. 3, when the RBA releases its monetary policy decision statement at 2:30 p.m. AEDT. Market watchers will scrutinize the wording just as much as the rate decision itself, before shifting focus to earnings reports and forward guidance. 6
