Sydney, February 3, 2026, 17:26 AEDT — The market has closed.
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) shares climbed 3.3% on Tuesday, closing at A$15.25 after fluctuating between A$14.99 and A$15.56. The stock ended 48 Australian cents higher than the previous session. The move followed investor reactions to Donald Trump’s new “Project Vault” initiative—a critical mineral reserve supported by $10 billion in Export-Import Bank of the United States financing and $2 billion from private investors—and anticipation for further comments from Doug Burgum after the White House announcement. (Investing)
Why it matters now: rare earths have turned into a policy-driven play. Stocks can swing sharply whenever governments mention stockpiles, trade alliances, or price controls — the supply chain remains deeply tied to China.
Lynas is at the heart of the debate, with its Mt Weld resource based in Western Australia and processing operations in Malaysia. It stands out as one of the limited number of significant non-Chinese producers of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), key metals for permanent magnets in electric motors and wind turbines.
Supply concerns remain front and center. Japan’s government announced it recovered rare-earth-rich seabed mud from roughly 6 km deep near Minamitori Island, aiming to reduce dependence on China. Analysis will start once the ship docks on Feb. 15. Meanwhile, TDK, a leading components maker, reported that Chinese export limits have disrupted its supplies. CFO Tetsuji Yamanishi described procurement as “an extremely difficult stage” during an earnings call. (Reuters)
The sector has been jolted by shifts in Washington’s stance. Late last week, a Reuters story revealed the Trump administration pulling back from talks on company-specific “price floors” — government-mandated minimum prices miners have sought to counter China’s state-backed supply. Lynas dropped over 10% at one point after the news broke; MP Materials and USA Rare Earth also fell. Reg Spencer of Canaccord Genuity called the reaction “overdone.” (Reuters)
Australia’s Resources Minister Madeleine King told Sky News the U.S. retreat “won’t stop” Canberra’s plan for a critical minerals strategic reserve. The country has outlined a A$1.2 billion stockpile, set to be operational by the latter half of 2026. Officials are also weighing a floor price through offtake agreements. (Reuters)
Company fundamentals remain relevant, even as politics dominate the tape. Lynas reported A$201.9 million in sales revenue for the quarter ending Dec. 31, up from A$141.2 million a year earlier. The average selling price climbed to A$85.60 per kilogram, while output dropped to 2,382 tonnes from 3,993 tonnes the previous quarter. CEO Amanda Lacaze pointed to ongoing power issues at Kalgoorlie: “As recently as yesterday, we had two significant power outages,” she said. (Reuters)
The risk lies in stockpiles and trade clubs lagging behind as the market rerates overnight; a policy reversal or loosening of Chinese restrictions could cap prices and tighten margins.
Traders are now focused on the specifics of what Project Vault will purchase and the timing, along with who will join the upcoming trade-club roster. Over in Japan, all eyes turn to Feb. 15, when the seabed-mud test ship is scheduled to return to port, kicking off lab analysis of the gathered samples.
