NEW YORK, August 10, 2026, 08:03 EDT
- In late premarket trading, shares of Rocket Lab rose 2.5% and AST SpaceMobile advanced 0.8%.
- Assuming the preliminary Q2 figure is achieved, ASTS requires second-half revenue between $100.9 million and $150.9 million to align with its most recent 2026 outlook.
- According to FactSet, Rocket Lab holds an Overweight rating, while ASTS is rated as Hold.
Shares of Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile advanced in premarket trade on Monday ahead of earnings expected after the closing bell. Rocket Lab shares were pointed up by 2.5%, while ASTS gained 0.8%. Both stocks had posted solid gains during Friday’s session.
| Company | Friday close | Friday move | Premarket indication | Premarket move | Quote time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab | $82.83 | up 9.46% | $84.88 | rising 2.47% | 07:28 EDT |
| AST SpaceMobile | $71.94 | up 6.80% | $72.48 | adding 0.75% | 07:58 EDT |
Premarket quotations are subject to delay and can fluctuate ahead of the market’s opening.
The surge increases expectations. Rocket Lab’s early Q2 revenue estimate at $230.95 million is close to its guidance midpoint of $232.5 million. ASTS shows higher growth potential, yet must meet a tougher sales target in the latter half.
Investors may prioritise different indicators. A standard Rocket Lab revenue outperformance might not be significant. Margins and the schedule for Neutron’s launch may be of higher importance.
| Company | Q1 revenue | Preliminary Q2 revenue estimate | Implied sequential growth | Preliminary Q2 loss estimate | Latest management guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab | $200.3M | $230.95M | 15% | $0.06 per share | Q2 revenue projected at $225M–$240M |
| AST SpaceMobile | $14.7M | $34.4M | 133% | $0.28 per share | 2026 revenue anticipated at $150M–$200M |
Figures are initial estimates. Rocket Lab data reflects the mentioned Street consensus. The projected loss for ASTS is based on Reuters/LSEG; consensus methodology may vary by source.
Rocket Lab forecast a GAAP gross margin between 33% and 35% for the second quarter, down from 38.2% in the first quarter. Management reiterated that Neutron is still scheduled to debut later this year.
ASTS projects a significantly higher rate of revenue growth. However, the company reported just $14.7 million for Q1. Its most recent annual guidance still stands at $150 million to $200 million.
| ASTS revenue bridge | Low end | High end |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 guidance from management | $150.0M | $200.0M |
| Q1 reported | $14.7M | $14.7M |
| Initial Q2 projection | $34.4M | $34.4M |
| First half revenue implied | $49.1M | $49.1M |
| Revenue needed for the second half | $100.9M | $150.9M |
| Average required per quarter for remainder | $50.4M | $75.4M |
| Growth needed from Q2 projection | 47% | 119% |
The calculation is based on ASTS achieving the initial Q2 projection and maintaining its current guidance for the full year.
This is the more rigorous test for investors. ASTS needs to post between $50.4 million and $75.4 million in revenues for every quarter going forward. This target is 47% to 119% higher than the Q2 projection.
Rocket Lab has gained new traction in the defense sector with two recent U.S. Space Force contracts worth up to $663 million. The biggest, at $397 million, features an option and provides for spacecraft, launch and operational services. Chief Executive Peter Beck described these offerings as “uniquely position us to deliver innovative solutions.” TipRanks
The announcements for both awards came after June 30. As a result, investors should not expect their entire value to appear in the backlog reported at the close of the second quarter. This detail may influence the discussion on the call.
ASTS achieved a key operational milestone last week. BlueBird satellites 11, 12, and 13 entered orbit on August 5. Satellites 14, 15, and 16 are getting ready for the next mission, with production ongoing up to satellite 42. Chief Executive Abel Avellan stated, “We remain focused on scaling our cellular broadband network as we prepare for beta services later this year.” Barchart.com
Rocket Lab continues to receive a more positive mix of recommendations from Wall Street analysts.
| Company | FactSet consensus | Ratings: Buy/OW/Hold/UW/Sell | Average target | Implied upside from Friday close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Lab | Overweight | 15 / 3 / 4 / 0 / 0 | $116.24 | 40.3% |
| AST SpaceMobile | Hold | 4 / 0 / 8 / 1 / 2 | $83.66 | 16.3% |
OW stands for Overweight; UW represents Underweight. Implied upside is based on closing prices from Friday.
The gap between targets stands out. According to FactSet averages, Rocket Lab could see over double the potential gains. However, both shares continue to show volatility, and price targets sometimes trail swift market movements.
Both firms are set to host calls at 17:00 EDT. Rocket Lab refers to its session as a financial-results update, while ASTS styles its event as a quarterly business update with a focus on financial results.
Risks: Both firms continue to operate at a loss, and scheduling for launches is subject to possible changes. Rocket Lab expects GAAP margins to narrow further. ASTS’s outlook is tied to successful launches, as well as regulatory and commercial progress. With shares having risen recently, patience for setbacks has diminished.
The earnings test remains uneven. Rocket Lab faces pressure to maintain its margins and stay on track with Neutron scheduling. ASTS needs to demonstrate its revenue trend can reach the 2026 objective.
Related articles: NASDAQ:ASTS
