New York, February 3, 2026, 13:52 EST — Regular session underway.
- Natural gas prices held steady following a steep fall in the previous session, as traders adjusted their bets on weather risk.
- Gas-linked stocks and funds followed the rebound, though the market remained uneasy over supply and demand cues.
- LNG export headlines and the upcoming U.S. storage report will set the near-term tone.
U.S. natural gas prices climbed Tuesday, with shares of the United States Natural Gas Fund edging higher after a sharp drop the day before linked to warmer forecast updates. March Henry Hub futures gained about 2.6%, settling near $3.32 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). UNG shares rose 1.1% to $12.84 in afternoon trading. EQT Corporation and Cheniere Energy each added roughly 0.7%. (Barchart)
This shift is crucial as the gas market struggles to stabilize following a period of sharp, volatile moves. Weather models have regained their role as the key driver, and the tape remains unforgiving.
A Reuters report on Monday highlighted that rising output and demand are expected to ease later in February, despite the country facing another cold snap. LSEG put Lower 48 production at 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early February, while projecting total demand—including exports—to drop from 159.3 bcfd this week to 147.1 bcfd next week. It also flagged near-record 30-day close-to-close volatility and noted Waha Hub cash prices slipping below zero again amid pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian Basin. (BOE Report)
Fuel challenges remained in the spotlight in the power market. PJM Interconnection projected generation outages of 25.72 gigawatts for Tuesday, rising sharply from Monday’s 19.96 GW. At the same time, eastern gas prices in Pennsylvania dropped to $3.79 per mmBtu for Tuesday delivery, down from $5.69 on Monday, according to Reuters. (Reuters)
Liquefied natural gas — LNG, chilled for shipment — has shifted recently. A January freeze knocked U.S. LNG exports down to 11.3 million metric tons from December’s 11.5 million, Reuters reported. This came after Freeport LNG partly went offline and Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island LNG terminal stopped taking feedgas, tapping rare cargoes from Trinidad and Tobago. (Reuters)
Commonwealth LNG announced Tuesday it signed a 20-year deal to deliver 1 million tonnes per year of LNG to Mercuria Energy Trading S.A., paired with a matching gas supply agreement. “These agreements mark a significant strategic partnership,” said David Lawler. Brian Falik added the deal aligns with Mercuria’s drive for “long-term, reliable LNG supply.” (PR Newswire)
The longer-term narrative centers on demand driven by export projects. Yet, in the near term, the market’s focused on the upcoming forecast update, the next production figures, and if LNG feedgas can withstand colder weather pressures.
The downside risk is straightforward. Should forecasts stay mild and output rebound fully, storage draws might ease, cash prices could weaken, and futures might lose their recent gains. But a new round of freeze-offs would change the game in an instant—the price moves have already proven how quickly that can happen.
Coming up next is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly natural gas storage report, set for February 5, 2026. This report tends to shake up prices whenever the data catches the market off guard. (Eia)
