New York, February 3, 2026, 19:37 EST — After-hours update
- Merck shares climbed roughly 2.2% in after-hours trading, following a volatile session on Tuesday
- The drugmaker’s 2026 forecast fell short of Wall Street revenue estimates, weighed down by patent expirations on older drugs
- Investors are eyeing Keytruda’s demand, Gardasil’s setbacks in China, and crucial FDA decision dates ahead
Merck & Co shares climbed 2.2% in after-hours trading Tuesday, closing at $115.84. During the session, the stock fluctuated between $109.02 and $118.35.
This move is significant as Merck heads into 2026 facing a familiar challenge: robust growth in its oncology portfolio paired with a widening gap from aging drugs. The industry’s straightforward term for this is “loss of exclusivity”—patents expire, and generic competitors quickly flood the market.
Merck projected 2026 revenue between $65.5 billion and $67.0 billion, missing the analyst consensus of $67.6 billion at the high end. The company flagged a $2.5 billion drag this year from generic competition, Medicare price talks, and softer sales of its COVID-19 pill Lagevrio. Evan Seigerman at BMO Capital Markets noted the quarter “builds a reasonable foundation for Merck heading into 2026,” though the revenue guidance might temper enthusiasm for the year. (Reuters)
Merck reported a 5% rise in fourth-quarter global sales, reaching $16.4 billion. Non-GAAP earnings came in at $2.04 per share, excluding certain items. The company also projected non-GAAP earnings for 2026 between $5.00 and $5.15 per share, factoring in a one-time charge around $3.65 per share related to its Cidara Therapeutics acquisition. CEO Robert M. Davis said, “momentum is building as we continue to execute on our strategy.” (Merck)
The same release laid out the upcoming timeline for investors eyeing the next growth phase. Merck announced the FDA has slated a Sept. 21, 2026 PDUFA date—the deadline under the user-fee program—for a label update filing related to Winrevair. It also highlighted additional decision milestones expected in the second half of 2026. (Merck)
A filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission revealed the company submitted its earnings release and supplemental materials in an 8-K dated Feb. 3.
The stock’s challenge is clear. Keytruda continues to perform well, but 2026 looms as the crucial year. That’s when investors will need concrete figures on what fills the gap left by aging, off-patent drugs—and how much profit might be eroded during the switch.
The story could still take a turn for the worse. A sharper drop in Gardasil demand, tougher U.S. pricing pressures than anticipated, or a setback in the late-stage pipeline would challenge the “bridge year” narrative. The stock has already proven it can swing wildly on even minor shifts in outlook.
Wednesday’s regular U.S. session will put the after-hours gains to the test as volume picks back up. Then, all eyes shift to the FDA schedule, beginning with the Sept. 21 deadline for the Winrevair label update.
