AMD stock price slides in premarket as forecast hints at softer quarter, spotlight stays on China chip sales

4 February 2026

NEW YORK, Feb 4, 2026, 04:47 EST — Premarket

Shares of AMD dropped roughly 7.6% in premarket trading following a quarterly outlook signaling a sequential decline in revenue
Management pointed out $100 million in MI308 AI chip sales to China during the quarter, noting export rules remain a key wildcard
Investors are focused on data-center growth and margins compared to Nvidia’s, with more analyst calls lined up after the open

Advanced Micro Devices shares slid roughly 7.6% in premarket action Wednesday, last seen around $223.63. The drop came after the chipmaker’s quarterly forecast hinted at a slight dip from the previous quarter.

This move is significant because AMD has positioned itself as one of the few scaled rivals to Nvidia in the data-center AI chip market. This marks the first clear insight into demand and pricing following a late-quarter surge driven by shipments to China. In Europe, AMD’s Frankfurt-listed shares dropped over 6% in early trading.

Traders zeroed in on how the company performs absent one-off support from China and inventory accounting. The big question: can its margins close the wide gap with Nvidia, as major clients continue pouring money into AI servers?

AMD projected first-quarter revenue around $9.8 billion, with a possible swing of $300 million either way, along with an adjusted gross margin near 55%. The adjusted figure excludes items the company doesn’t count as core operating expenses.

A filing revealed AMD factored in roughly $100 million from Instinct MI308 sales to China in its outlook, following U.S. export controls that compelled the company to send altered versions of its chips to the market there.

AMD posted revenue of $10.27 billion for the quarter ending Dec. 27, marking a 34% jump from the same period last year. The company reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.53 per share. Its data-center segment saw a 39% increase in revenue to $5.4 billion, driven by strong sales of EPYC server CPUs and a steady rise in Instinct GPU shipments, the company said.

AMD revealed that its full-year 2025 results factored in roughly $440 million in net inventory and related charges linked to U.S. export controls on MI308 products. The fourth quarter, however, saw a boost from around $360 million in reserve releases connected to that inventory. The company reported MI308 revenue to China at about $390 million in Q4.

AMD’s guidance rattled investors. Shares in the U.S. dropped about 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday, Reuters reported, as the market sized up AMD’s 55% adjusted gross-margin forecast against Nvidia’s mid-70% target range. “The expectations for large blowout quarters for AI-related hardware companies have skewed what the market is looking for,” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/amd-forecasts-first-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2026-02-03/

Chief executive Lisa Su described the China situation as “dynamic,” insisting that supply won’t constrain AMD’s AI server growth despite industry concerns over component shortages. “I do not believe that we will be supply-limited in terms of the ramp that we put in place,” Su said during the call, Reuters reported.

AMD is moving beyond just chips, diving into full AI systems. Nvidia, for its part, offers “rack-scale” setups combining GPUs, CPUs, and networking gear. According to Reuters, AMD’s MI308 goes head-to-head with Nvidia’s H20 in China, a market where export licenses and changing regulations can swiftly alter shipping possibilities.

The risk scenario isn’t far from the bull case: should China tighten licenses again, or if some major buyers scale back orders or favor Nvidia, AMD’s data-center growth might seem less reliable than investors expect.

Once trading kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET, eyes will be on whether the selloff sticks and on new analyst takes regarding how much AMD’s quarter was boosted by shipments to China. AMD’s next event is set for March 3, when it presents at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference.

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Shan Ahmed Khan is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech. His coverage ranges from stocks and technology to economic developments across global markets. He worked in investment research and market analysis before becoming a financial journalist and is a graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS).

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