Macquarie Shares Wipe Out Year’s Gain Within a Week as Upside Shrinks to 3%

SYDNEY, August 23, 2026, 11:57 AEST

• Macquarie dropped 5.14% over the last week, declining in each of five straight sessions.
• The drop wiped out roughly A$4.96 billion in market capitalisation.
• The loss marginally surpassed Macquarie’s FY26 profit of A$4.847 billion.
• The average price target from 13 analysts indicates an upside of only 2.98%.

Macquarie Group Limited ASX:MQG lost around A$4.96 billion in market capitalisation last week, a sum just exceeding its projected FY26 earnings. Shares declined 5.14% to A$248.43.

The decline has yet to create a substantial valuation buffer. The average price target among thirteen analysts stands at A$255.84, just 2.98% higher than Friday’s closing price, even as the consensus rating remains ‘buy’.

Macquarie finished down each session. The biggest decline was Tuesday, at 1.99%. On Friday, shares slipped below A$250 for the first time this month.

The equity value estimate is provisional. With Friday’s market capitalisation at A$91.43 billion, there are about 368 million shares. Using the weekly price drop of A$13.47, the projected loss is around A$4.96 billion.

Market moves are only partly explained by the broader trend. The S&P/ASX 200 declined around 0.7% last week. MQG lagged the benchmark by about 4.4 percentage points, weighed down as rising bond yields and worries over inflation impacted financial and tech stocks.

No new profit warning was issued. Macquarie reported a 30% increase in full-year net profit to A$4.847 billion. Earnings per share climbed 30% to A$12.77, and return on equity stood at 14.0%.

Chief Executive Shemara Wikramanayake stated that all businesses had leveraged specialized knowledge to adapt to the market and uncover long-term growth prospects. The impact was widespread. Asset management earnings climbed 27%, commodities and global markets increased 49%, while Macquarie Capital saw a 43% rise.

Asset management finalised its A$11.7 billion acquisition in Qube on August 14. Qube Holdings Limited ASX:QUB provides the consortium with access to ports, terminals, and transport infrastructure via rail and road. Despite the completion, MQG’s shares extended their five-day decline.

The valuation remains high compared to conventional banks. MQG is priced at 19.75 times its trailing earnings and offers a 2.82% yield. Its earnings multiple is similar to NAB’s, though its yield is the lowest among the major four banks.

Analysts maintain an optimistic view, though their target prices are close together. Eight analysts rate MQG as a buy, three advise holding, while two suggest selling. JPMorgan has set a target of A$275, indicating a potential gain of 10.7%. Citi’s target price of A$240 is 3.4% lower than Friday’s closing price.

The initial test for Monday is Friday’s intraday low of A$247.36. If breached, this would open the way to Citi’s target at A$240. Regaining levels above A$252.30 would offset Friday’s decline, while consensus value stands at A$255.84.

Risks: Rising bond yields may continue to put pressure on financial-sector valuations. Fluctuating asset-sale and performance-fee income creates inconsistency. Earnings could also be negatively affected by credit losses, swings in commodity prices, regulatory changes, and challenges with executing major infrastructure projects.

The past week’s decline erased a year’s worth of profit from Macquarie’s market value. However, consensus points to just a 3% potential gain. Monday will reveal if this reset is sufficient, or simply an initial move toward A$240.

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