Coinbase stock slides nearly 8% as Nevada targets its prediction-market contracts

Coinbase stock slides nearly 8% as Nevada targets its prediction-market contracts

New York, Feb 4, 2026, 13:20 EST — Regular session

  • Coinbase shares drop after Nevada gaming regulator moves to block certain event contracts within the state
  • Bitcoin and ether fall, dragging down stocks tied to crypto
  • Traders are watching for court developments in Nevada and Coinbase’s earnings report on Feb. 12

Shares of Coinbase Global Inc dropped 7.9% to $165.42 on Wednesday, deepening a steep slide after Nevada’s gaming regulator took legal action to block the exchange from selling certain “event contracts” to state residents.

The timing is tough for Coinbase, as the company pushes to expand beyond spot crypto trading and lock in users with additional products. Investors are also gearing up for a potentially volatile run-up to its quarterly earnings next week.

Event contracts are derivatives tied to real-world outcomes — sports scores, election results, or economic indicators. Their growth has been rapid. But state gaming regulators are pushing back hard.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board announced it filed a civil enforcement action in Carson City District Court on Feb. 2 against Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc., aiming to secure a declaration and injunction to halt what it describes as unlicensed wagering under state law. “The Board takes seriously its obligation to operate a thriving gaming industry and to protect Nevada citizens,” chairman Mike Dreitzer said.

The board’s complaint claims Coinbase “operates a gambling game and/or sports pool” accepting wagers from Nevada. It pointed to contracts letting users bet on sports results and other events, citing one where a user pays $100 for a contract that would pay out $303 if the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl.

Separately, Nevada filed for an ex parte temporary restraining order along with a preliminary injunction. The complaint claims Coinbase lacks a license to accept wagers in the state and accuses the company of taking a cut of the money wagered on its platform, disguised as “fees.”

Coinbase has doubled down on this approach. Back in December, it announced plans to let users trade stocks alongside event contracts linked to real-world outcomes, teaming up with prediction-market operator Kalshi. “We aim to offer the greatest variety of contracts available on one platform,” said Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s head of consumer and business products, at the time. (Reuters)

The legal battle is also part of a broader clash over who should regulate these contracts. Last week, CFTC chairman Michael Selig announced the agency plans to create new rules for event contracts and withdraw an earlier proposal that aimed to ban them outright. “For too long, the CFTC’s existing framework has proven difficult to apply,” Selig said. (Reuters)

Crypto prices weighed on sentiment Wednesday. Bitcoin slid 2.7% to around $72,616, while ether dropped 4.1% to about $2,078. These declines typically hit Coinbase hard, given how much its earnings depend on trading volumes and market swings.

Coinbase hit the news again for a cybersecurity slip. The firm revealed to BleepingComputer that a contractor gained unauthorized access to customer data last December, impacting roughly 30 users. That contractor is no longer with the company. (BleepingComputer)

Coinbase’s bigger worry isn’t just Nevada. If the state scores a quick win, expect other regions to target the same products. That could mean geo-blocking, halted expansion, and rising legal bills—just as crypto prices dip and traders pull back.

Investors are watching two key upcoming dates: the court’s decision on Nevada’s emergency relief request, and Coinbase’s Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release on Feb. 12 after markets close. A webcast will follow that same day. (Coinbase Investor Relations)

Through the rest of the week, expect the stock to move largely in line with recent trends: shifts in crypto prices, regulatory news tied to event contracts, and clues on how much Coinbase plans to dial back or double down before earnings.

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