LONDON, Feb 6, 2026, 13:35 GMT — Regular session.
- Spot silver bounced back over $74 following a dip close to $64 earlier, yet it remains over 12% lower for the week.
- CME Group raised margins on COMEX silver futures from 15% to 18%, pushing traders to put up extra cash on leveraged positions.
- A Reuters poll projects silver will average $79.50 an ounce in 2026, but analysts caution demand and positioning could fuel sharp swings.
Silver’s rollercoaster ride continued Friday after CME Group (CME.O) increased margin requirements once more, putting pressure on leveraged traders despite the rebound. Spot silver climbed 5.5% to $75.15 by 0601 GMT, recovering from a sharp drop to $63.99 earlier in the day. 1
Margins refer to the deposits futures traders put up with an exchange or clearing house to lower default risk. When margins increase, some traders choose to trim positions instead of adding funds, which can escalate a quick selloff into a sharp decline.
The silver price forecast for 2026 is being revised on the fly. A Reuters poll of 30 analysts and traders released this week put the median forecast at $79.50 an ounce—a sharp jump from the previous estimate. But caution remains. The same factors driving silver’s surge could reverse just as fast. GoldCore CEO David Russell noted institutions are “being tested in ways not seen in a generation.” Meanwhile, Julius Baer’s Carsten Menke highlighted weakening demand from industry and jewellery sectors, with solar panel makers looking to “shift away” due to cost pressures. 2
In European afternoon trade, spot silver (XAG=) climbed 4.4% to $74.37 an ounce by 1243 GMT, bouncing back from a drop below $65 earlier in Asia. Despite the rebound, silver remains over 12% lower for the week after an 18% plunge last week—the steepest weekly loss since 2011. Kelvin Wong of OANDA noted “a bit of a safe-haven investment coming in,” though caution remains following last Friday’s selloff and as Iran and the United States started talks in Oman. 3
Thursday revealed just how fast sentiment can shift. Silver plunged up to 15% as investors pulled back from hard assets following news that the U.S. and Iran would hold talks, plus a positive phone call between the leaders of the U.S. and China. OCBC’s Christopher Wong pointed to a “self-reinforcing feedback loop” amid thin liquidity, while IG’s Tony Sycamore described the moves as “aftershocks” from the recent wild swings in precious metals. 4
The fallout showed up in retail products as well. China’s UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund hit its 10% daily down-limit for the fifth day running, dropping over 40% from its January 26 peak, even after trading was halted at the open. UBS SDIC Fund Management cautioned that investors face “severe losses” if they buy units at a steep premium to net asset value. Meanwhile, Duan Shihua, head of Shanghai Changer Investment Management Consulting, pointed to a “perfect storm” involving product design, investor behavior, and trading mechanics. 5
Market pricing for late 2026 is notably steadier than this week’s action. The December 2026 COMEX silver contract hovered near $77 on Friday, holding a slight premium over spot prices and roughly matching the Reuters-poll average — yet still far from the highs seen back in January. 6
But the 2026 silver price forecast carries a major caveat: demand. If manufacturers continue cutting silver content in items like solar panels, or if a strong dollar and elevated real yields remain, silver might find it tough to sustain rallies once the forced-liquidation period ends.
Upcoming data points are stacking up fast. The postponed U.S. January non-farm payrolls report hits Wednesday, Feb. 11, then January CPI arrives Friday, Feb. 13. Investors are also sizing up Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and how it might influence rate cuts down the line this year. 7
