Helsinki, July 21, 2026, 21:16 EEST
- Helsinki shares finished at €9.386, rising 5.25%, while the OMXH25 advanced 0.37%.
- Initial consensus suggests a second-half margin of 14.8%, compared with approximately 7.0% recorded in the first half.
Nokia Oyj HEL:NOKIA climbed 5.3% on Tuesday. Early consensus estimates suggest a tougher period ahead. Almost 72% of the projected 2026 comparable operating profit needs to be delivered in the latter half.
The projected margin for the second half stands at 14.8%, exceeding double the estimated 7.0% recorded in the first half.
The Helsinki cash market finished trading at the dateline. Standard equity trading concludes at 18:30 local time. Nokia is scheduled to report at approximately 08:00 EEST on Thursday.
According to Infront’s initial consensus, second-quarter revenue comes in at €4.822 billion. This result is 7.2% higher than the first quarter and aligns closely with Nokia’s sequential guidance of 5%-9%.
Profit forecasts are positioned at the upper end of the seasonal band. The €376 million projection represents 16.0% of the annual consensus. Nokia has provided guidance for a range between 12% and 16%.
The preliminary full-year consensus stands at €2.357 billion, while Nokia’s forecast ranges from €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion. The timing remains uncertain.
The table presents Q1 actual results alongside early Q2 consensus estimates. Figures for the second half represent the remainder required to achieve the full-year consensus target.
| 2026 metric | First-half estimate | Second half needed | Full-year consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | €9.319bn | €11.510bn | €20.829bn |
| Comparable operating profit | €657m | €1.700bn | €2.357bn |
| Comparable operating margin | 7.0% | 14.8% | 11.3% |
The equation results in €1.70 billion of comparable operating profit for the latter half of the year. Achieving this figure calls for €11.51 billion in sales.
Nokia’s internal seasonal outlooks anticipate stronger performance later in the year. Nevertheless, the margin needs to increase by over twofold compared to the suggested first-half figure.
Network Infrastructure is projected to deliver the highest sequential sales growth, according to initial Q2 estimates, with an increase of 11.8%. The estimate for Mobile Infrastructure suggests a 3.7% rise.
Helsinki shares ended the session at €9.386, rising 5.25%. The OMXH25 index advanced 0.37%. European technology shares increased by 2.1%.
Tuesday’s rebound offset some of last week’s 18.8% decline. The stock is still trading 13.9% under its July 10 closing price.
Sales in AI and cloud climbed 49% during Q1. Group revenue increased 4% on both a constant-currency and portfolio basis. Nokia secured €1 billion in AI and cloud orders.
Chief Executive Justin Hotard stated in April that “Demand has accelerated significantly.” Nokia Corporation | Nokia
Competitive earnings highlighted a risk to costs. Ericsson STO:ERIC-B cautioned last week that heightened AI demand was driving up memory-chip prices.
Chief Financial Officer Lars Sandström stated, “The whole AI build-out is putting quite the pressure on the whole industry, including us.” Reuters
Risks continue to be centred around component cost inflation, exchange rates, project scheduling, and expenditure by carriers. A less favourable product mix may postpone the necessary margin increase.
Thursday’s report puts to the test the €376 million profit projection and a 7.8% margin. Network Infrastructure revenue is expected to reach €2.044 billion.
Outlook for margins and costs of components could carry greater significance. Falling short would increase the already substantial challenge for the second half.
