New York, Feb 6, 2026, 10:46 a.m. EST — Regular session
- Sirius XM shares dropped roughly 5% on Friday, following a 9% surge the previous day.
- Targets for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow were set by the company for 2026.
- A Seaport Global downgrade fueled a retreat following Thursday’s rally.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc shares dropped 5.3% to $21.40 in early Friday trading, retreating from the previous day’s strong rally. 1
The retreat follows a strong 9% gain the day before, when the satellite radio firm closed at $22.60. That move went against the wider market’s downturn and came on volume several times above its recent average. 2
Investors are dissecting SiriusXM’s first full-year guidance since the company described its 2026 outlook as “stable.” Management is focusing on cash flow and keeping costs in check, even as subscriber numbers remain uneven. 3
SiriusXM projects revenue around $8.5 billion for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA near $2.6 billion and free cash flow—after capital expenditures—at about $1.35 billion. The company reported $8.56 billion in revenue for 2025, alongside net income of $805 million and free cash flow jumping 24% year over year to $1.26 billion. CEO Jennifer Witz said the results “overdelivered,” while CFO Zac Coughlin highlighted a $1.5 billion free cash flow target for 2027. 3
SiriusXM wrapped up 2025 with roughly 33 million total subscribers. In Q4, self-pay net adds hit about 110,000, boosted by new product launches, though self-pay subscribers dropped 301,000 across the entire year. The company also reported self-pay monthly churn at 1.5% for 2025, while full-year ARPU edged down to $15.11. 3
Programming took center stage in the pitch. SiriusXM announced a fresh three-year deal with Howard Stern and projected podcasting to jump 41% in 2025, following 12% growth this year. 3
Seaport Global Securities dropped its rating on the stock to “Neutral” from “Buy” on Friday, citing downward revisions to estimates following the company’s 2026 outlook. The firm expects “moderately worse” self-pay subscriber losses than in 2025. Analyst David Joyce described the revenue and EBITDA guidance as “stable,” but flagged potential headwinds for ARPU growth, noting that promotions and discounting may undercut planned price hikes. 4
SiriusXM now faces a split narrative: strong cash flow that attracted buyers Thursday, but ongoing concerns around subscribers and pricing keep the stock on edge.
A major risk lies in promotions dragging on beyond expectations or auto-related conversion slipping, which could boost churn and complicate hitting the 2027 free-cash-flow target—especially if the ad market remains volatile.
Next week brings the company’s quarterly dividend, set for payment on Feb. 27. Shareholders on record by Feb. 11 will be eligible, a date that often shifts trading tactics ahead of time. 5
