New York, Feb 6, 2026, 15:30 EST — Regular session
Centene Corp (CNC.N) shares dropped 5.7% to $37.64 in Friday afternoon trade, having earlier hit a session low of $35.31. The move comes as investors sift through the insurer’s updated 2026 outlook. Molina Healthcare (MOH.N) slid roughly 28%, dragging on the rest of the U.S. managed-care sector.
Why does this reaction matter? For government-focused health insurers, it’s all about a single issue: is medical spending settling down, or does it keep outpacing what they’re getting from state and federal payers?
Centene’s update comes as the sector faces turbulence, investors dumping shares on even a whiff that rates haven’t caught up with care demand in Medicaid and Affordable Care Act plans.
Centene put out a 2026 adjusted profit forecast topping $3 a share, clearing the bar set by Wall Street. But revenue came in light: the company projected $186.5 billion to $190.5 billion, missing analysts’ $193.43 billion consensus, per LSEG. Baird’s Michael Ha wrote, “We expect the magnitude of Molina’s unfavorable earnings to prevent Centene from moving higher today”—though some on the Street see Molina’s issues as more idiosyncratic. 1
Centene posted an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of $1.19 a share on $49.7 billion in revenue, with its health benefits ratio landing at 94.3%. Looking ahead to 2026, the company projected adjusted EPS topping $3.00 and a health benefits ratio between 90.9% and 91.7% for the full year. CEO Sarah London pointed to “positive momentum” by the end of 2025, attributing it to the company’s moves around Marketplace profitability and Medicaid stability. 2
The real pivot here: health-benefits costs. Just a couple of percentage points up or down, and you’re looking at either solid earnings or the threat of further cuts. That’s especially true for plans with pricing that only adjusts annually.
Centene’s Friday Form 8-K included both its earnings release and a 2026 guidance deck, according to the filing. 3
J.P. Morgan’s John Stansel said the results ought to “provide some relief” in the wake of Molina’s warning, according to Healthcare Dive. The outlet also pointed out Centene holds the top spot among U.S. Medicaid managed-care insurers and leads all providers on Affordable Care Act exchanges. 4
Still, it’s a shaky setup. Should medical-cost trends remain elevated through spring — or if funding and rate changes don’t keep up with utilization — Medicaid and ACA exchange plan margins could shrink in a hurry, making guidance outdated almost overnight.
The next key date for investors: Centene’s first-quarter 2026 report, set for April 28. The earnings event is on the calendar. 5
