NEW YORK, Feb 7, 2026, 04:10 (EST)
- Meta slipped 1.3% Friday, with the stock pressured by concerns over surging 2026 spending plans—even as investors digested the company’s AI-fueled boost to ad revenue.
- Big Tech’s AI-related spending is expected to top $630 billion this year, putting returns under a brighter spotlight.
- Some commentators question if Meta’s ad engine will be enough to bankroll the buildout, or if it could end up straining cash flow.
Meta Platforms shares dropped 1.3% Friday, with investors balancing upbeat signals from AI-powered advertising against a steep rise in spending that may pressure cash flow. The stock was recently at $661.46, putting Meta’s market cap near $1.84 trillion.
U.S. tech behemoths are projecting over $630 billion in total spending this year, with much of it funneled into artificial intelligence, putting their future returns under the microscope. Morgan Stanley analysts cautioned that investors want a clear line of sight to profits from these outlays, noting they’re “not forgiving” when companies can’t demonstrate a payoff on return on invested capital. 1
Meta finds itself at the heart of this debate, with its AI strategy focused more on eking out extra revenue from ads and short-form video than on pushing cloud services. Bulls highlight the potential for efficiency gains within an established ad operation. Bears, though, spot what they say is a recurring cycle: big promises, mounting expenses.
Meta logged fourth-quarter revenue of $59.89 billion, marking a 24% increase from the same stretch last year, with net income landing at $22.77 billion. Ad impressions climbed 18%, and the average price per ad edged up by 6%. For 2026, Meta is eyeing capital expenditures in the $115 billion to $135 billion range—these are outlays for things like data centers and servers. Projected total expenses for 2026: $162 billion to $169 billion. 2
During the January earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg pitched the company’s increased outlays as fueling “personal superintelligence,” his label for a next-gen AI that could outperform people. Over at Gabelli Funds, portfolio manager John Belton described Meta’s valuation as “not that demanding,” emphasizing that the company’s main business is still delivering, now with a lift from AI infrastructure. “A necessary transitional year,” is how Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, summed up 2026. 3
Friday’s MarketMinute commentary said Meta is wiring AI straight into its ad systems and engagement algorithms—giving it an edge while rivals wrestle with rising costs. Reels and automated ad products, the piece noted, are currently the most obvious ways for Big Tech to cash in on AI. 4
On Thursday, a Seeking Alpha column pushed back, contending that Meta’s stock surge after earnings doesn’t add up, citing a concerning capital spending trend and persistent losses from its “moonshot” bets. The piece flagged higher capex as a risk to free cash flow, and hit out at what it called soft discipline around capital allocation. 5
This week, a Motley Fool op-ed on Nasdaq.com singled out Meta as a leading AI stock for February, pointing to its dominance in social media and suggesting AI might help Meta press that edge even further. The piece made the case that Meta’s push into AI could drive new revenue streams—no chip sales or cloud business required. 6
Meta has pointed to stronger advertiser results through its AI-powered “Advantage+” suite, saying each dollar spent brings in roughly $4.52 — the standard return on ad spend, or ROAS. That $4.52 figure sits at the center of the argument for AI’s impact on ad efficiency, though just how consistent it is across different ad types remains a hot topic. 7
Here’s the catch: when ad demand weakens just as spending ramps up, margins and cash flow can tighten in a hurry. The crowd that applauded the strategy could lose patience fast if returns take longer than hoped.
