NEW YORK, February 7, 2026, 12:30 PM EST — The market has closed.
- U.S. natural gas futures finished down on Friday, surrendering earlier gains.
- Prices slipped as forecasts called for warmer weather, and new data pointed to an uptick in drilling activity.
- Next up for traders: fresh mid-February weather models and the upcoming U.S. storage report.
Natural gas futures in the U.S. dropped on Friday, as traders factored in warmer weather outlooks and fresh supply cues heading into next week. The March Henry Hub contract slipped 8.7 cents, closing at $3.422 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down roughly 2.5%. 1
The market’s still feeling the aftershocks of last week’s weather swing—a wild Arctic surge sent prices soaring, only to see them sink again as the outlook warmed. February’s heating demand hasn’t gone anywhere. Each tweak in those temperature models? It hits prices immediately.
Next week’s real test: does the market keep chasing those mild forecasts, or does it snap back to the tightening storage story after booking the largest weekly withdrawal on record? Liquidity usually dries up heading into the weekend. The first signs of direction will show up Sunday evening, when futures kick back into gear.
U.S. natural gas storage just logged a record-breaking drawdown. Inventories across the Lower 48 dropped by 360 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended January 30, according to the Energy Information Administration—the steepest weekly withdrawal the federal Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report has ever recorded. Stocks now sit roughly 1.1% under the five-year average for this period, as Winter Storm Fern cranked up heating demand and triggered production cuts via freeze-offs and shut-ins. 2
On the supply side, the picture is shifting. U.S. natural gas rigs climbed to 130 for the week ending February 6, up from 125 the previous week, Baker Hughes numbers from YCharts show. The next data drop lands February 13. 3
Near-term balance isn’t just about the weather—exports and pipeline limits are also in play. Reuters, citing LSEG figures, noted U.S. gas production edged up early February, even as overall demand, exports included, is expected to dip next week. Gas headed to LNG export plants still acts as a lever, pulling supply out of the domestic mix. 4
European gas prices swung sharply again. Dutch TTF natural gas futures finished Tuesday at 35.694 euros per megawatt-hour, a 5.81% jump from the previous session, according to Investing.com data. 5
There’s fresh movement on the long-term demand front, too. Cheniere Energy has submitted paperwork to U.S. regulators for a 24 million tonnes-per-year expansion at its Corpus Christi facility in Texas—enough to require roughly 3.3 billion cubic feet of gas daily. The filing adds fuel to the ongoing debate around the pace of U.S. LNG capacity growth. 6
A Greek joint venture is out shopping for a long-term U.S. LNG contract, aiming to bolster southern Europe’s supply line—another sign Europe is hustling to secure gas before Russian imports are off the table. “If Europe doesn’t want to be again hostage to gas, they need to secure long-term agreements with the United States,” CEO Alexandros Exarchou told Reuters. He also said, “now (is) the best possible time to negotiate prices for the future.” 7
The risk is simple enough here: February weather models can change on a dime, so if cold settles back in, tighter balances could follow, despite more drilling. On the other hand, if forecasts for milder weather stick and output continues to rebound post-storm, prices could slide further and remain depressed.
All eyes now turn to the EIA’s weekly storage report coming up February 12, a key marker. Traders are tracking updated temperature forecasts and LNG feedgas data, looking for any hint that demand is slowing down as much as the models have projected. 8
