London, February 9, 2026, 09:03 GMT — Regular session
- Lloyds (LLOY.L) slipped roughly 2% to trade near 105 pence in the morning session
- UK rate-cut bets bubbled up again after the Bank of England delivered a narrow vote.
- Next up: Barclays reports on Feb. 10. Lloyds follows with its annual numbers on Feb. 18.
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) dropped roughly 1.9% to 104.73 pence in early London trading Monday, lagging peers as traders weighed new sector deal headlines and a changing UK rate outlook. Shares, which closed at 106.75 pence on Friday, have ranged from 103.97 to 107.17 so far. 1
This shift lands at a tricky moment for UK banks. For months, higher rates have plumped up the spread between what lenders earn on loans and pay on deposits, while buybacks have juiced returns. But after last week’s 5–4 Bank of England decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%—with four members pushing for a 25-basis-point cut—that supportive backdrop looks less certain. 2
Sterling edged lower Monday, weighed down by mounting political heat on Prime Minister Keir Starmer and renewed bets that the Bank of England will roll out more cuts this year. “Expect pressure to remain on both sterling and gilts,” said ING’s Chris Turner, who pointed to political speculation in the UK alongside what he described as a “dovish twist” from the central bank last week. 3
Deal news gave investors something else to chew on. NatWest unveiled plans to pick up wealth manager Evelyn Partners for 2.7 billion pounds, pairing the buy with a 750 million pound share buyback—part of banks’ scramble for fee revenues less exposed to rate swings. The bank said its core equity tier 1 ratio would take a roughly 130 basis point hit, or 1.3 percentage points. Shares in NatWest dropped following the update. 4
Lloyds finds itself in a tricky spot right now. Fundamentally, it’s still a retail-focused, UK-centric bank. Investors are puzzling over how fast lower rates could bite into earnings—plus, competitors moving faster into wealth management and fee income are raising the stakes.
Lloyds struck an upbeat note with its latest results, posting a 12% jump in 2025 pre-tax profit to 6.7 billion pounds and rolling out a 1.75 billion pound share buyback. The bank also bumped its 2026 return-on-tangible-equity goal to above 16%. “Enable us to upgrade guidance,” CEO Charlie Nunn said, citing ongoing momentum and delivery. Looking further ahead, Lloyds is aiming for more than 100 million pounds in additional profit from generative AI in 2026, as those tools get integrated deeper into the business. 5
Still, there’s a stubborn risk shadowing the sector: the UK motor-finance commission dispute. Claims costs can spike unexpectedly, and current provisions might not settle it. Just last October, Barclays flagged another charge tied to possible car-finance mis-selling—proof that conduct costs can flip the narrative for banks fast. 6
Lloyds investors have a new date to mark: Feb. 18, when the bank’s 2025 annual report lands. That report usually digs deeper into risk, capital, and governance matters than what’s found in the main earnings numbers. 7
Eyes shift now to peer results, with Barclays up next—earnings due Feb. 10. Traders are set to parse any tweaks in margin guidance or capital return, which could sway sentiment for UK banks as a group. 8
Outside of London, it’s the macro picture steering the action. Investors are watching for U.S. data this week—jobs numbers, retail sales, inflation—while markets hunt for clues on when the Federal Reserve might move on rates. Lloyds, on the other hand, is counting down to Feb. 18; that’s when its annual report is expected. 9
