New York, February 9, 2026, 07:02 EST — Premarket
- U.S. wholesale gasoline futures climbed roughly 1% early Monday, pushing up to the upper edge of their overnight range.
- Gas prices are hovering close to $2.90 a gallon nationwide, leaving fuel costs firmly on the inflation radar.
- Midweek U.S. stockpile numbers are on traders’ radar, along with any new developments from U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Gasoline futures in the U.S. moved higher early Monday, as front-month RBOB ticked up 2.1 cents to $1.9745 a gallon in New York Harbor. The contract opened at $1.9374 and stuck close to that range, bouncing between $1.9354 and $1.9788. 1
This shift carries weight—gasoline hits wallets fast, and that impact can jump into inflation figures almost immediately. Rising prices at the pump rarely go unnoticed by households, even when the main action is happening with crude in the background.
This isn’t lost on refiners and fuel distributors. Wholesale price strength can swing margins either way, tied closely to crude costs. It also affects how hard refiners push their units ahead of spring maintenance season.
Oil held its ground on Monday, with the latest moves from the U.S. and Iran—both agreeing to extend indirect talks—calming short-term supply jitters but still keeping a lid under prices. Brent edged up 17 cents to $68.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 18 cents, reaching $63.73, according to Reuters. SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop weighed in: “The Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as U.S. warships are located where they are.” 2
Refined products haven’t escaped the persistent chatter about freight and sanctions, despite what appears to be a steady tape. “Freight is a meaningful regional differentiator this year,” Keshav Lohiya, CEO at HiLo Analytics, told Reuters in a column analyzing oil market signals. 3
Refiners are still seeing healthy margins. The U.S. 3-2-1 crack spread, which tracks the difference between gasoline and diesel prices and crude costs, sat at $24.93 a barrel on Feb. 8, RBN Energy data show. 4
Gasoline prices barely budged, with AAA reporting the national average for regular at $2.902 a gallon on Feb. 9. 5
Next up: U.S. inventory cues. Private industry data lands Tuesday, with the government’s report set for Wednesday. Gasoline stocks, refinery run rates, and the impact of winter’s slower demand on supply levels will get close attention.
The risk is simple: if there’s a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran or a bigger risk-off sentiment sweeps through commodities, crude’s risk premium could evaporate—and gasoline prices might follow. A jump in U.S. gasoline inventories would only pile on, particularly with spring maintenance looming.
