New York, Feb 9, 2026, 07:05 EST — Premarket
Heating oil futures in the U.S. dipped below the $2.40 mark early Monday, with traders eyeing softer short-term demand even as crude prices held steady. By 7:05 a.m. EST, NYMEX heating oil was down to $2.3975 a gallon—a drop of 1.6 cents, or roughly 0.7%, from Friday’s $2.4133 finish. So far, prices have bounced between $2.3678 and $2.4025. 1
Heating oil serves as the primary U.S. distillate benchmark, shaping diesel prices and what Americans pay for winter heating fuel. Even minor shifts in the futures market can ripple through trucking expenses, wholesale fuel markups, and, ultimately, the home heating bills households face.
It’s geopolitics and weather in the driver’s seat now. A headline can instantly flip crude supply risk, while a change in the forecast has the power to move distillate demand in days instead of weeks.
Crude prices leveled off as both Washington and Tehran indicated indirect talks would keep going, dialing back some of the immediate supply worries. Still, traders kept an eye on Russia-linked shipments. “The Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as U.S. warships are located where they are,” SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said. Analysts at Sparta pointed out that if India fully halted Russian imports, it would mark “a sustained bullish development” for the physical crude market. 2
Heating oil often follows crude’s moves, though it doesn’t necessarily match the pace. If the market senses milder temperatures ahead or inventories bouncing back quickly, distillates usually lag—even as crude prices stay firm.
Weather remains the key factor for near-term demand. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center, in its latest outlook released Sunday, highlighted a stretch of above-normal temperatures expected for most areas east of the Rockies between Feb. 14–18, with another warm spell likely Feb. 16–22—conditions that could knock down heating needs as the season winds down. The CPC’s next round of monthly and seasonal forecasts is scheduled for Feb. 19. 3
All eyes now shift to Wednesday, when the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its Weekly Petroleum Status Report just after 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Distillate inventories—think diesel and heating oil—are in focus, along with refinery throughput and export numbers. According to the EIA’s calendar, the report for the week ending Feb. 13 moves to Thursday, Feb. 19, a shift prompted by President’s Day. 4
The EIA drops its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, Feb. 10—one more look at the demand and supply projections shaping distillate prices. 5
The downside isn’t hard to spot: any trouble near the Strait of Hormuz, a breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks, or tighter supplies of “clean” barrels could send crude higher and drag heating oil along, regardless of a break in the weather. Then there’s the less dramatic risk—a hefty build in U.S. distillate stocks could easily stall any recovery for heating oil.
This week, macro data steps into the spotlight. The U.S. consumer price index for January lands on Feb. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, a drop with teeth: dollar moves, rate bets, and the price of commodities can all pivot on the print. 6
