New York, Feb 9, 2026, 12:02 EST — Regular session
Exxon Mobil Corporation edged up 0.1% to $149.20 around midday Monday, after earlier hitting $150.50 for the session. Chevron gained roughly 0.7% as well, with both U.S. oil majors tracking crude-related moves.
Why now? Oil’s back in the crosshairs. Brent nudged up 0.1% to $68.11 a barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate ticking 0.1% higher to $63.60. Washington and Tehran are keeping indirect talks alive, but SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop isn’t convinced. “The Iranian risk premium cannot be fully defused as long as U.S. warships are located where they are,” he said. 1
Supply cues look mixed. OPEC’s January production edged down to 28.34 million barrels per day—a drop of roughly 60,000 bpd from December, according to a Reuters survey. OPEC+ kicked off its first-quarter break from raising output, prompted by concerns over excess supply. 2
Attention has shifted to non-OPEC supply, too. Production at the Chevron-operated Tengiz field in Kazakhstan is back up to about 60% of its maximum level, according to two industry sources cited by Reuters. The field, which suffered power facility fires last month, is aiming to restore full output by Feb. 23. 3
Exxon investors keep circling the same themes: growth in output and steady cash payouts. On Jan. 30, the oil giant topped analysts’ Q4 adjusted profit forecasts, with annual upstream production reaching 4.7 million boepd—its strongest showing in over four decades. “We’re capturing more value from every barrel and molecule we produce,” CEO Darren Woods said in a statement. 4
A key operational deadline isn’t far off. Woods told reporters the Golden Pass LNG export terminal in Texas, run jointly with QatarEnergy, should turn out its first liquefied natural gas in “very early March.” That timeline follows setbacks — delays, extra costs, a switch in contractors. 5
Competitive talk is resurfacing as oil demand hangs on longer than most had called. According to Wood Mackenzie, Shell’s proven reserves now support less than eight years of output—far behind Exxon and TotalEnergies, each boasting more than 12 years as of the end of 2024. “Absent M&A in the near term, we expect these concerns over [production] longevity to linger,” wrote RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria. 6
Exxon has been hammering on shareholder returns in its communications. For the first quarter, it announced a $1.03 per share dividend, set for payment on March 10 to holders on record by Feb. 12—that’s the cutoff before the stock trades ex-dividend and new buyers miss out on that check. The company also laid out plans to buy back up to $20 billion in stock through 2026, pending market conditions. 7
That can change on a dime. On Monday, the U.S. put out new advice for commercial ships going through the Strait of Hormuz, telling those flying the American flag to “remain as far as possible” from Iran’s territorial waters. The move highlights just how fast shipping risk feeds into crude pricing—and, in turn, hits integrated oil names like Exxon. 8
Looking ahead, traders are watching crude headlines tied to U.S.-Iran talks and Middle East shipping developments. But they’re also tracking specifics: Exxon’s shareholder record date set for Feb. 12, Tengiz aiming for full recovery by Feb. 23, and Golden Pass scheduled to deliver its first LNG in “very early March.”
