Bitcoin traders cool on Fed rate cuts ahead of March meeting as Warsh uncertainty bites

NEW YORK, February 10, 2026, 04:42 (EST)

• Traders in betting markets aren’t pricing in a Fed move this March, with uncertainty around leadership weighing on expectations.
• Bitcoin and ether lost ground as rate-cut odds flipped once more
• Fresh forecasts and a brand-new “dot plot” on rate expectations are set for the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting.

Crypto traders are dialing down their wagers on Fed rate cuts this year, with bets shifting after President Donald Trump put forward ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh for the top job. According to CoinGape, data from betting markets now points to traders anticipating two cuts, not three. 1

The stakes in this repricing are high: the Fed’s next move won’t come for weeks, and rate bets shape liquidity—how loose or tight cash feels in the market. That, in turn, weighs directly on risk assets, crypto included. Traders are bracing for choppy, news-fueled jolts heading into March. 2

The Fed kept its key rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in January, following three cuts at the end of last year. The next meeting falls on March 17-18, a session that brings fresh economic forecasts and the latest “dot plot,” showing where policymakers see rates headed. 3

Traders on Polymarket on Tuesday priced in an 83% chance the Fed holds rates steady in March. Over on a different contract, bets favored two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026—that’s 0.25 percentage point each—with odds implied at 28%. 4

Bonds are echoing the same message. According to Forbes, most traders are betting the Fed won’t move rates at the March meeting. Investors are zeroed in on fresh inflation numbers and jobs figures, hoping for a hint at when rate cuts could pick up again. 5

CoinGape pointed to data from the CME FedWatch tool, which uses Fed funds futures to gauge market expectations—the numbers show traders are pricing in just a 17% shot at a March rate cut, while odds of holding steady land around 82%. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. 6

Bitcoin dipped roughly 0.7% to $69,106 early in New York, with ether slipping 0.9% to $2,018, market data showed. After pushing past $80,000 during the nomination headlines, bitcoin has pulled back, and traders remain on edge over shifting rate chatter.

No clear consensus among investors: some see Warsh as likely to favor rate cuts, others expect him to stick with a hard line on inflation. Sam Badawi, posting on X, pointed out that while Warsh is “often depicted as hawkish,” his push for a fresh Fed–Treasury accord hints at a more complex stance. 7

Investor and crypto commentator Anthony Pompliano said in a separate post on X that Warsh would probably move quickly to slash interest rates, calling on traders to prepare for what he described as a “historic rotation.” 8

Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, sounded a note of caution on the balance sheet, saying the Fed might not rush into unwinding its bond portfolio, even if Warsh is in charge. “I wouldn’t expect them to do anything quickly,” Bessent said. He figures it could take “at least a year” before the path forward is clear. 9

The macro signals are all over the place. January’s New York Fed survey, out Monday, showed one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.1%—down from 3.4% in December. Even so, U.S. households are feeling more uneasy about their finances. On Friday, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson weighed in, saying, “the American people believe that we are committed to bringing inflation down to our target.” 10

March rate cut bets remain volatile. Any sign of stronger inflation or a solid jobs print could sap those odds and keep crypto under the cosh. If growth stumbles, though, the Fed might have to pivot. And then there’s the political angle—traders are eyeing the Warsh transition and questioning what it means for Fed autonomy. “What we have here is a little more nebulous,” said Frances Donald, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada. 11