London, Feb 10, 2026, 11:34 GMT — Regular session
- Brent slipped 0.35% to $68.80 a barrel as of 1002 GMT, while WTI edged 0.47% lower to $64.06.
- The continued U.S. shipping advisory for the Strait of Hormuz is keeping that geopolitical “risk premium” alive.
- Traders are eyeing U.S. inventory data next, also waiting for updates on Iran talks and potential Russia sanctions.
Brent crude slipped on Tuesday, traders hesitant as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—the channel moving around 20% of the world’s oil—remained just a risk scenario. Brent futures dropped 24 cents to $68.80 a barrel as of 1002 GMT, off 0.35%. U.S. WTI lost 30 cents, landing at $64.06. “Unless there are concrete signs of supply disruptions, prices will likely start going lower,” Tamas Varga at PVM said. 1
The U.S. Maritime Administration has issued a caution to commercial ships moving through the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman, citing persistent risks that Iranian forces could board, detain, or seize vessels. U.S.-flagged ships, the agency said, should keep as much distance as practical from Iran’s territorial waters, so long as it doesn’t endanger navigation. If boarded, crews are advised not to resist physically. 2
So the oil market’s back to pricing in uncertainty. Traders have a term for it: the “risk premium.” Buyers shell out more, just in case those barrels never arrive, outage or not—screens can show nothing, but nerves still stay frayed.
Brent climbed 99 cents to finish at $69.04, up 1.5% on Monday, with the U.S. advisory putting geopolitics squarely back in the spotlight. “This week’s crude trade may have little to do with fundamentals,” wrote Ritterbusch and Associates. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo described the situation as “extremely difficult to judge,” saying traders were now looking for any clue on when round two of the talks might happen. 3
Washington rolled out new guidance for ships moving through the strait, with tension still high over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Reuters reported. Tehran has threatened before to shut down the passage and has, at points, seized commercial vessels. President Donald Trump, according to the report, signed an executive order: 25% tariffs on imports from any nation buying Iranian goods. 4
Iran said the recent nuclear talks helped it assess how serious Washington really is, and that there was enough agreement to push talks forward. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described the Muscat session as a test for “how to continue this path.” He also highlighted Ali Larijani’s follow-up visit to Oman—Larijani is an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader. 5
Europe is upping the stakes. The EU is looking to widen its Russia sanctions, for the first time targeting ports outside the bloc—specifically, facilities in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, a proposal document seen by Reuters shows. Getting all EU members on board is required for the measures to pass. The sanction package also pushes for an outright ban on maritime services for Russian crude, which would go beyond the current price cap. 6
OPEC’s January output slipped to 28.34 million barrels per day, a dip of 60,000 bpd from December, according to a Reuters survey. Lower production in Nigeria and Libya erased gains seen elsewhere in the group. OPEC+ — that’s OPEC along with its Russia-led partners — has started a first-quarter halt to its monthly output hikes, worried about oversupplied markets. 7
Physical flows are moving as well. Indian Oil and HPCL, both state-run refiners, snapped up 2 million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey crude from Trafigura for April’s second half. The shipment’s headed to India’s east coast, loaded on a very large crude carrier—the industry’s heaviest lifter. This deal was pegged to Dubai prices. Reuters previously noted Venezuelan barrels changing hands at discounts versus Brent. 8
But the downside’s pretty clear: should shipping disruptions ease and negotiations hold steady, that risk premium could vanish quickly, pushing Brent down to reflect weaker fundamentals. A surprise uptick in U.S. inventories wouldn’t do the market any favors either.
Wednesday brings the next key data release: the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report, expected at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time. Until that hits, traders are left watching for fresh developments from Hormuz or any signals on EU sanctions. 9
