New York, Feb 10, 2026, 10:21 EST — Regular session
- Marriott shares jumped, buoyed by its latest quarterly numbers and an updated outlook through 2026.
- Management flagged a divide in demand—luxury bookings are running ahead of the cheaper stays.
- This week, investors are eyeing peer updates, looking for any signals on where hotel pricing power stands.
Marriott International shares jumped 9.1% to $361.37 Tuesday morning. Earlier, the hotel operator’s stock touched $363.47, following its latest quarterly results and a new forecast for 2026.
The update arrives right in the thick of earnings season, with investors sorting through mixed economic signals to figure out if travel demand is holding up or starting to slip. Higher-end leisure travelers have fueled hotel rate growth lately, though stability on the budget side has started to wobble.
Marriott is in focus because its lineup spans everything from luxury to select-service, and with a business built on fees, rising rooms and rates tend to fuel hefty cash generation. A slowdown limited to budget travel? The sector can manage. Broader weakness, though, would shift the outlook for 2026 in a hurry.
Marriott’s fourth-quarter 2025 RevPAR climbed 1.9% globally, with international markets up 6.1% but the U.S. and Canada inching down 0.1%, according to its earnings release. CEO Anthony Capuano described U.S. and Canada results as “roughly flat,” blaming the drag on business transient travel from a prolonged U.S. government shutdown. He also pointed out that luxury hotels “continued to outperform.” For 2026, Marriott is projecting global RevPAR growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, net rooms growth between 4.5% and 5%, and expects to return over $4.3 billion in capital. The company cited a record pipeline: about 4,100 properties totaling nearly 610,000 rooms. 1
Even with the stock’s move, Marriott’s room revenue picture isn’t particularly straightforward. The U.S. select-service segment, aimed at cost-minded travelers, booked a 1.8% drop in room revenue for the quarter. On the other hand, domestic luxury properties posted a 4.9% increase. LSEG data pegged average analyst forecasts for 2026 RevPAR growth at roughly 2.3%, right in the middle of Marriott’s own 1.5% to 2.5% guidance. Adjusted earnings landed at $2.58 a share, missing profit forecasts, while revenue at $6.69 billion edged past what the Street was looking for. 2
Shares rebounded, signaling investors are relieved things didn’t deteriorate further—and Marriott’s still able to send cash back to shareholders, despite weaker U.S. room growth at the budget end. There’s also a bet here: as long as the development pipeline expands, fee income should keep climbing, no matter if room demand wobbles.
During the call, Capuano told analysts Marriott is projecting adjusted diluted EPS growth of 13% to 15% for 2026, adding that the World Cup should tack on an extra 30 to 35 basis points—hundredths of a percentage point—to global RevPAR. That forecast, he noted, banks on a “relatively steady macroeconomic environment” and doesn’t account for any effect from ongoing discussions to rework U.S. co-branded credit card agreements. Marriott expects to sort those deals out later this year, Capuano added. Finance chief Leenie Oberg described the expected 4.5% to 5% net rooms growth as “organic.” 3
The risk scenario practically writes itself. Should the trade-down accelerate and value shoppers pare visits more, that squeeze could ripple upward, making it tougher to push through rate hikes. A prolonged government shutdown would likely suppress business travel as well. Then there’s the credit-card talks—uncertainties there could shuffle fee income and shift timing, leaving current guidance behind.
Hilton Worldwide is on deck with quarterly results due Feb. 11, with Hyatt Hotels lined up the next day, Feb. 12. Investors will be parsing their RevPAR updates for signs they match Marriott’s recent pattern: luxury bookings staying strong, while budget segments slip. 4
