Robinhood Stock Faces Earnings-Day Whiplash as Options Price a Double-Digit Swing

NEW YORK, Feb 10, 2026, 16:09 EST

• One data set pointed to options pricing that suggests Robinhood shares could swing about 12% after earnings.
• Wolfe Research lifted its rating on the stock Monday, saying the crypto-fueled selloff has overreached.
• Investors are eyeing whether emerging sectors like prediction markets might help counter a crypto slowdown.

Robinhood Markets’ shares are on watch ahead of Tuesday’s earnings, with traders expecting a volatile reaction. The stock slid recently as crypto sentiment soured, prompting new voices urging investors to buy the dip.

Why it matters now: The online broker is set to deliver fourth-quarter numbers after the close, with investors focused on whether fresh offerings can fuel revenue growth if crypto trading loses steam.

That question has grown louder lately, with digital-asset prices swinging and Robinhood’s stock tumbling sharply from its October high. Attention is once again on just how much of the business still depends on crypto volumes.

Options traders are bracing for volatility, with contracts implying an 11.76% swing either way after the results, according to TipRanks. 1

Another look at options pointed to a tighter move—around 9% for the week—highlighting just how much swings in estimates depend on the timeframe and the data plugged in. The term “implied move” refers to the expected range, based on options prices, that a stock might cover within a given stretch. 2

Recent estimates gathered by Investing.com and several market data trackers put the consensus for earnings at about 60 to 63 cents per share, with revenue expected somewhere between $1.34 billion and $1.35 billion. 3

Steven Chubak at Wolfe Research bumped Robinhood to Outperform on Monday, aiming for a $125 price target. He cited the recent crypto-driven selloff as a buying opportunity. 4

Chubak noted the stock has slipped to about where he first grew cautious last year, despite Robinhood’s push into new products—think prediction markets—and an expanded roster across more regions.

Some analysts have tried to draw lines around the crypto story, with a few estimating it makes up about a fifth of revenue. In a recent note, one called the recent slide “unfairly beaten up,” citing Investing.com. 5

Outside of crypto, investors are zeroing in on engagement — watching user growth, funded accounts, and equity and options trading. Subscriptions like Robinhood Gold, along with new products such as retirement accounts, are also drawing attention for signs of traction.

Prediction markets, those contracts that allow users to trade on real-world events, are a wildcard here. Some bulls argue they could help Robinhood diversify its revenue stream. But skeptics flag tangled state regulations and a crowded field as real hurdles.

Still, risks are hard to ignore. Crypto volumes dropping further would put pressure on transaction revenue, possibly pushing it below forecasts. And if regulators clamp down on event-based contracts, that could undercut prediction market growth—right when the company is counting on those markets to broaden its reach.