Mortgage rates stuck near 6% — a jobs report could break the stalemate

NEW YORK, Feb 11, 2026, 04:10 EST

• Mortgage News Daily reported its 30-year fixed index down by 0.05 percentage point to 6.11% on Tuesday.
• On Feb. 9, Zillow put its average 30-year rate at 5.99%. Refinance rates for 30-year loans were steeper, hitting 6.80%.
• All eyes shift to the U.S. jobs report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, as traders look for the next signal to move bond yields.

Mortgage rates in the U.S. slipped to a three-week low on Tuesday, as disappointing Retail Sales data sent bond prices higher and dragged yields lower. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.11%, a decline of 0.05 percentage point, according to Mortgage News Daily’s daily index. 1

This shift is significant for buyers as the spring selling season picks up, since even slight tweaks in borrowing costs can make or break a deal. Rates have mostly hovered around 6%, and markets have been anything but patient—quickly latching onto fresh data that could sway sentiment on growth or inflation.

Zillow’s data showed the average 30-year mortgage rate holding steady at 5.99% on Feb. 9, about where it’s hovered for most of the past month. The 15-year rate came in at 5.37%. CBS News, meanwhile, flagged a light near-term schedule: no Federal Reserve meeting this month, and some jobs numbers pushed back. 2

Refinancing is still more expensive. The CBS report cited Zillow data, which listed the average 30-year refinance rate at 6.80%. For a 15-year refi, Zillow posted a 5.52% average.

On Feb. 9, Yahoo Finance ran a separate analysis looking at the stubbornly flat mortgage rate environment and the question on many borrowers’ minds: when might rates finally head lower? 3

Mortgage News Daily reported that Tuesday saw the steepest single-day fall in rates since that sharp move back on Jan. 9, with levels dipping under the 6.15%-6.20% band seen lately. Analyst Matthew Graham didn’t mince words on the bond calculation: “Weaker data = lower rates.”

Borrowing costs often trace back to the bond market, particularly mortgage-backed securities—those are bonds tied to pools of home loans. On Mortgage News Daily’s dashboard, lenders kept an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield, which sat near 4.14%. That figure still serves as a key marker for long-term loan pricing.

The focus shifts to 8:30 a.m. ET, when the U.S. jobs report drops—a data point traders often read as the key gauge of economic momentum. According to Graham, the recent run-up might just be the market bracing for a disappointing number. If the report comes in soft, expect the slide to continue, but anything showing “resilience” has the potential to push rates higher again.

Fed voices keep tamping down hopes for near-term rate cuts. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack warned, “we could be on hold for quite some time,” while Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan flagged her concern that inflation may stay “stubbornly high.” https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-hammack-says-interest-rates-could-be-hold-for-quite-some-time-2026-02-10/ 4

Borrowers hoping for a decisive drop face another problem: the bond market’s nerves. Yields can spike on firmer jobs data or signs inflation’s not letting up, and lenders don’t wait around—they’ll bump up rates within hours, even when average trackers barely budge.

Rate trackers don’t always line up exactly. Mortgage News Daily bases its figures on a daily index, and Zillow relies on its own sampling method. Headline rates can also move around, depending on fees, borrower credit, or points.

So far, it’s not a major drop—more a market caught in limbo, twitchy with every fresh data release. Without a run of weaker numbers, borrowers are likely to watch rates hover near 6%, never quite settling below that mark.