NEW YORK, Feb 15, 2026, 12:34 ET — Market closed.
- U.S. natural gas futures finished up on Friday. Still, after tumbling for two straight weeks, prices booked another weekly loss.
- Strong LNG export demand is in focus, but traders are also eyeing late-February warmth that threatens to dampen heating demand.
- Traders are eyeing Thursday’s U.S. storage report, with the March contract set to expire before the month wraps up.
U.S. natural gas futures wrapped up Friday at $3.243 per mmBtu—up 2.6 cents, or 0.8%—marking the strongest finish since Feb. 6, just ahead of the weekend break. Despite the uptick, the March contract posted a weekly loss of around 5%, stacking onto prior declines of roughly 21% and 17% in the two weeks before.
This is key: the market’s wrestling with whether the late-winter premium has evaporated or merely hit pause. Heating demand often drops quickly as soon as forecasts shift warmer, and right now, traders are betting pretty heavily that mild temperatures will linger at least through the end of February.
LNG—liquefied natural gas shipped after being chilled to ultra-low temperatures—continues to draw U.S. gas into export facilities, even as output stays robust. That back-and-forth is most visible in storage forecasts, specifically in the calculations over just how much gas utilities might have to tap from underground stockpiles before winter wraps up.
The latest Saturday outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center lays out a temperature divide for late February—cooler or near-normal in the West and stretches of the Northern Plains, but leaning warmer from the Four Corners through big swaths of the Central and Eastern U.S. Forecaster Ryan Bolt cited “above average” confidence in the forecast. The center plans to release fresh monthly and seasonal outlooks on Feb. 19. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
U.S. gas rigs nudged up to 133 for the week ending Feb. 13, three higher than the week before, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs slipped to 409. Traders tend to keep an eye on these numbers—even though changes in rig counts, which offer a sense of drilling activity ahead, don’t directly map onto production.
LNG net flows into U.S. export plants hit 19.2 bcf/day on Friday, according to BloombergNEF, keeping the export story alive even as mild weather takes some steam out of domestic consumption. Futures open again Sunday night, and with the March contract expiring Feb. 25, traders are already looking at how rolling positions could move prices in the near term.
West Texas is still dealing with its own headache outside the Henry Hub benchmark. Cash prices at the Permian’s Waha Hub keep slipping into negative territory—pipeline limitations continue to strand gas in the region. It’s a sharp example of how local choke points can make price moves more extreme, even if the overall national market feels softer.
Mercer Capital’s Bryce Erickson isn’t mincing words this month: “Natural gas prices are unlikely to lose their volatility anytime soon.” Despite a “more constructive” fundamental picture than what’s showing up in public markets, he still describes prices as “volatile.” Midland Reporter-Telegram
The downside? Still pretty straightforward. Should the warmer forecasts hold and supply keeps up, traders likely start baking in lighter storage draws—or even an early close to the deficit narrative. Any rally could lose steam fast. On the flip side, a swing to colder weather in major demand hubs or a hiccup in supply lines could flip things tight almost overnight.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly natural gas storage numbers on Feb. 19, offering a read on whether stocks are drawing down or building up as winter comes to a close.
