Copenhagen, Feb 24, 2026, 11:53 CET — Regular session in progress.
- Novo Nordisk shares slid further, with investors working through CagriSema’s head-to-head readout against Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide.
- Barclays trimmed its peak sales estimate for CagriSema following the Phase 3 results.
- Novo pointed to new mid-stage China trial data on UBT251, its so-called “triple G” obesity candidate.
Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) dropped 2.5% to 245.1 Danish crowns on Tuesday. The stock continued to slide after the company’s next-generation obesity drug, CagriSema, delivered underwhelming trial results.
This shift is significant—CagriSema has anchored the Danish drugmaker’s strategy to safeguard its weight-loss business, right as Eli Lilly (LLY.N) gathers steam with both prescriptions and investor hopes running high. Now, analysts see these head-to-head results as something more like a reset than a mere hiccup.
Novo shares plunged over 16% on Monday, erasing gains from the Wegovy rally and wiping about $475 billion off the drugmaker’s market cap since its 2024 high, according to Reuters. Zealand, the Danish rival, slipped 7% in the fallout.
Novo reported that its open-label Phase 3 REDEFINE 4 trial didn’t hit the main goal. The study was unable to demonstrate “non-inferiority” for weight loss compared with tirzepatide, falling short of the margin set in advance. CagriSema showed 23.0% weight loss at 84 weeks, while tirzepatide delivered 25.5%. Novo is aiming for an FDA decision by late 2026, and says a higher-dose Phase 3 trial should kick off in the back half of that year. Novo Nordisk
On Tuesday, Barclays analysts cut their peak sales estimate for CagriSema down to $2 billion from $12 billion after the latest readout—a dramatic reduction and one of the more striking public downgrades so far. Both Barclays and other banks noted the data throws the drug’s commercial prospects into question, even with possible U.S. approval by year-end and a launch eyed for next year.
BMO Capital Markets’ Evan David Seigerman didn’t mince words—he questioned the case for CagriSema when tirzepatide is already an option. Over at Jefferies, Michael Leuchten suggested the setback might push investors to focus more on what management does next on the M&A front.
Novo on Tuesday highlighted different figures. Alongside United Laboratories, which trades in Hong Kong, the company reported that their jointly developed “triple G” molecule UBT251 delivered mean weight loss of up to 19.7% after 24 weeks in a China mid-stage trial. That compares with just 2.0% for placebo. “Triple G” here means the drug targets GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon — three hormones, not just one as current blockbusters do. Novo’s chief scientific officer, Martin Holst Lange, called the results “very encouraged.” Reuters
Still, the core issue hasn’t changed for traders. Early wins won’t undo a late-stage disappointment, and in obesity, the market isn’t shy about penalizing anything that doesn’t look like a front-runner. A mid-stage China study? That’s nowhere near enough for a global label—or to move the needle on pricing.
Eyes now turn to Novo’s annual general meeting set for March 26, 2026, with first-quarter numbers expected early on May 6, 2026, at 07:30 CEST. Investors will be watching for any hint of changes in pipeline focus or capital strategy.
