New York, Feb 25, 2026, 13:51 (EST) — Regular session
- NYMEX March natural gas added 1.3%, finishing at $2.953 per mmBtu with expiration closing in. April contracts hovered near $2.88.
- U.S. LNG export plants are seeing near-record flows, and a modest uptick in demand expectations has managed to counterbalance those warmer weather forecasts.
- Thursday’s U.S. storage report has traders watching for any hint that the deficit is closing quickly.
U.S. natural gas futures ticked higher Wednesday, lifted by almost record-setting flows to LNG export facilities and a jump in next week’s demand projections compared to what traders saw the previous day. March contracts gained 3.8 cents, or 1.3%, settling at $2.953 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
This rebound lands just as the March contract wraps its stint as the front month, traders shifting exposure into April while they work out what remains of winter demand. After Tuesday’s drop, the market hovered around prices not seen since late September. The bias still leans heavy on the screen.
Right now, storage is doing the heavy lifting, not the headlines. On one side, LNG export plants are siphoning gas from the U.S. system; on the other, mild weather is suppressing heating demand. The market sits wedged between these two forces.
Natural gas hit its lowest close in about five months just a day ago, pressured by warmer weather outlooks and fading expectations for any last-minute cold. “Even if we get a cold shot, we have really run out of a winter fairway for this to jump higher,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. EnergyNow
Bulls aren’t finding much comfort in the latest output and storage numbers. Average Lower 48 production bumped up to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) through February, with forecasts calling for softer demand—including exports—next week. Analysts looking ahead to Thursday’s storage report expect the supply gap to close sharply thanks to milder temperatures. LNG feedgas flows remain high. Over in West Texas, spot prices at Waha have stayed negative for a record run, with pipeline capacity keeping Permian Basin gas bottled up.
Still, things can reverse fast. If warmer weather sticks around into early March, or LNG feedgas slips, storage could flip back toward a surplus—pressuring front-month prices lower.
Equity traders eyeing a proxy found the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) trading up roughly 1.4% at $11.62 early this afternoon.
U.S. LNG exports continue to shift global trade routes, with European buyers snapping up shipments while China’s spot demand lags and inventories sit far beneath what’s usual for this part of the year.
The focus now turns to Thursday, when the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its weekly natural gas storage numbers at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Traders are also keeping an eye on shifts in pricing and liquidity as April rolls in as the new front month.
