New York, Feb 28, 2026, 15:49 EST — The market has closed.
- Oil is expected to surge when markets open again, with analysts pointing to the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and mounting worries over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Occidental Petroleum climbed 3.2% by Friday’s close, with the stock hovering close to its recent peaks as the week wrapped.
- OPEC+ is set to meet Sunday. A decision to boost production might dull a rally in oil, potentially putting a lid on energy stocks.
Occidental Petroleum shares look set for a rocky start this week, with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend stoking worries about a possible oil supply shock. “The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday’s open,” OCBC’s Christopher Wong said from Singapore. Eurasia Group is calling for a $5-$10 jump over the $73 baseline, while Barclays now sees Brent possibly reaching $100 a barrel. Reuters
U.S. markets are paused until Monday, March 2, so traders will have to wait for their first shot at Occidental (OXY) after the weekend. The stock finished Friday up 3.21%, closing at $53.08, with an intraday range from $51.87 to $53.24.
The reason’s straightforward: Oxy tracks crude. When oil surges, producers like Oxy often see their stocks jump quickly—traders pile in before pausing to consider the details, at least for a short stretch.
Brent climbed roughly 2% to finish at $72.48 a barrel on Friday, as traders had already priced in some risk of supply disruption linked to Iran. Barclays put the current “risk premium” at $3 to $5 per barrel, and suggested that figure could unwind quickly if supplies remain unaffected. Still, the bank noted that losing even 1 million barrels a day could send Brent toward $80. Reuters
The impact from oil’s jump won’t just hit energy stocks. William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, figures Brent might reach $80 a barrel if the conflict stops short — but stretch out the fighting and prices could touch $100, potentially boosting inflation by 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points.
The Strait of Hormuz—crucial and narrow—remains the epicenter, with much of the Gulf’s crude exports funneling through. Several oil majors and leading trading firms have halted crude and fuel shipments there since the attacks, according to trading sources speaking to Reuters.
There’s an early supply check for investors coming up Sunday, March 1. OPEC+ — that’s the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia — is set to meet at 1100 GMT. Delegates are talking about the possibility of a bigger output hike than previously planned following the latest Middle East flare-up, according to sources.
Oxy’s recent run with buyers? That’s been fueled by more than weekend geopolitics—the balance sheet has been front and center. Fitch Ratings bumped Occidental’s long-term issuer rating up to BBB from BBB- last Thursday, nodding to the company’s faster-than-expected debt paydown. Since the start of the year, $5.4 billion is off the books already, and another $700 million looks set to go, thanks to an active tender.
Behind the scenes, a strong message from shareholders is hard to miss. Berkshire Hathaway logged a $4.5 billion writedown tied to its 26.9% holding in Occidental, calling the oil company’s slide in share price something other than “temporary.” Still, Berkshire made clear it’s not planning to offload its stock. Reuters
Oxy caught a bid going into the weekend, ending Friday up 3.21%—a stronger move than rivals like Chevron, EOG Resources, or Devon Energy, according to MarketWatch data.
Oxy’s fortunes remain tied to oil, for better or worse. “Oil prices are bloated with a decent geopolitical risk premium,” said Norbert Rucker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer. He expects the Iran-driven premium to fade, with attention swinging back to a looming supply glut later this year. A Reuters poll out this week put Brent’s average at $63.85 a barrel in 2026, with U.S. crude seen at $60.38. Reuters
Traders have three main items on their radar for the coming week: updates on shipping through Hormuz, OPEC+’s call set for Sunday, March 1, and how Brent and U.S. crude open when markets get going again. As for Oxy, eyes turn to the opening bell on Monday, March 2, with another checkpoint coming from the Energy Information Administration’s weekly U.S. crude inventory numbers, due Wednesday, March 4.
