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Lockheed Martin stock price forecast after Iran strikes: what to watch before Monday’s open
28 February 2026
2 mins read

Lockheed Martin stock price forecast after Iran strikes: what to watch before Monday’s open

New York, February 28, 2026, 15:47 ET — Market closed.

  • U.S. and Israeli forces hit Iran with strikes on Saturday, ratcheting up tensions tied to Tehran’s nuclear and missile ambitions.
  • Lockheed Martin climbed 2.56% by Friday’s close, putting the defense name on several watchlists for the next U.S. session.
  • Barclays sees Brent potentially hitting $80 a barrel, but that hinges on the standoff leading to significant supply disruption.

Lockheed Martin could see attention when U.S. markets open Monday, after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran—a major escalation that risks rattling energy and risk assets. Israel claimed the operation killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, though Reuters said it was unable to independently confirm that.

Why it matters now: With Wall Street closed for the weekend, defense stocks—including Lockheed—won’t see fresh prices until everything hits at Monday’s open. Lockheed, the top U.S. defense contractor by output, stands right in the middle if missile-defense or munitions demand surges on any conflict escalation.

Oil could be the initial mover here, rather than anything military. “The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday’s open,” OCBC strategist Christopher Wong said. He pointed out that risk assets and high-beta currencies might get hit with some early turbulence. (A risk premium is the extra return investors demand to hold assets when uncertainty jumps.) Reuters

Lockheed closed out Friday at $658.26, a gain of $16.45, or 2.56%. The move came just before the weekend headlines.

On Friday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.43%, marking losses across the board. Brent crude, however, climbed 2.04% to $72.48 a barrel. Investors juggled fresh nerves over Middle East tensions and uncertainty swirling around U.S. tech jobs and corporate spending.

Lockheed finished ahead of other defense names going into the close, notching gains even as RTX, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics also posted higher finishes Friday. Boeing slipped. Lockheed’s volume hit roughly 2.5 million shares, well above its 50-day average of about 1.7 million, according to MarketWatch.

Shipping risks ratcheted higher over the weekend. Following the attacks, several tanker operators, oil majors, and trading firms have put a stop to crude, fuel, and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to trading sources who spoke to Reuters. An EU naval mission official added that vessels were instructed no ships could pass.

Hormuz sits at the heart of this: roughly 20% of global oil moves through its strait, turning crude into a near-instant gauge for regional stress. Defense stocks feel the impact in unpredictable ways. Climbing oil may stoke inflation worries, prompting investors to trim equity exposure—yet at the same time, defense shares can attract fresh bets as traders hunt for a shield against geopolitical risk.

Lockheed’s story for now is all about missile output and steady Pentagon orders. Back in January, it struck a profit-sharing deal meant to ramp up air-defense missile production and put out a 2026 revenue forecast—$77.5 billion to $80.0 billion—that topped what Wall Street had penciled in. CEO Jim Taiclet, speaking to investors, said the company would “plow” some of those higher profits right back into expanding capacity. Reuters

Late Friday, a regulatory filing revealed that Gregory M. Ulmer, president of Aeronautics, sold 2,840 shares of Lockheed on Feb. 27. The transactions went through at weighted-average prices hovering between $650 and $651, according to the disclosure. Ulmer’s form also checked the Rule 10b5-1 box, signaling the trades were made under a preset executive plan.

But Monday’s outlook isn’t simple. Any weekend hint of de-escalation could wipe out the market’s “war premium” in a hurry. If crude jumps and stocks slide, Lockheed may still get swept up in a wider wave of de-risking, defense badge or not.

All eyes shift to Sunday’s headlines, with the U.S. markets opening again Monday, March 2. Lockheed, for its part, is scheduled to pay out a $3.45-per-share quarterly dividend on March 27, for shareholders on record as of March 2, according to the company.

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the founder and CEO of TS2 Space, a satellite communications company serving customers around the world. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he has more than two decades of experience in telecommunications, satellite services and technology ventures. He writes about satellite communications, space technology, artificial intelligence and the stock market, with a particular focus on technology companies, semiconductors, emerging industries and the trends shaping global innovation.

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