New York, March 2, 2026, 13:00 EST — Regular session
Bitcoin rose about 4.7% to $69,141 on Monday, recovering ground after a volatile weekend for global markets. Ether climbed about 3.9% to $2,040.
The move came as investors digested the widening U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran and the inflation risk from higher energy prices. Brent crude rose 8.07% to $78.74 a barrel and U.S. crude gained 6.86% to $71.62, Reuters reported.
That matters for bitcoin because rates set the price of risk. “Significantly higher oil is inflationary, ‘just as it was when Russia invaded Ukraine,’” Rabobank analysts wrote, while Mizuho’s Steven Rochester said oil in the $100-$130 range could wipe out expected rate cuts and even force a mild hiking cycle. Reuters
Bitcoin had briefly dropped below $64,000 on Saturday before stabilising, a reminder that weekend liquidity can exaggerate price swings. SEB analysts said the current events were “unlikely to be as quick a fade,” arguing for oil “at least 10 dollars higher.” Reuters
Safe-haven gold held near $5,284 an ounce after an earlier jump, even as the dollar index rose more than 1%, Reuters said. “Right now, the market is attempting to figure out whether these attacks are going to be followed up over the next several weeks,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Reuters
U.S. data released on Monday did little to ease inflation unease. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI — a survey-based gauge of factory activity — was 52.4 in February, and its prices-paid index surged to 70.5, the highest since October 2022, Reuters reported.
Investors now look to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for clues on when the Federal Reserve may next cut rates. A Reuters poll showed forecasts for 60,000 jobs added in February, and “the concern is that January is a one-off,” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. Reuters
Regulatory headlines also crossed the tape. Turkey’s ruling AK Party submitted a bill proposing a 10% withholding tax on crypto-asset income and gains and a 0.03% levy on crypto service providers’ sale and transfer transactions, according to the draft text.
In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said former prosecutor David Miller will become its top enforcement official as the agency prepares for greater oversight of cryptocurrency and prediction markets. Miller said he looked forward to protecting market integrity, including from “fraud, abuse, and manipulation.” Reuters
But the rebound has little room for error if the conflict widens or shipping disruptions deepen. Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer called the market reaction “relatively moderate” given the Strait of Hormuz is “effectively closed,” while Barclays analysts warned investors may be underpricing a scenario where containment fails. Reuters
The next catalyst is Friday’s U.S. employment report, due at 08:30 a.m. ET on March 6, alongside ongoing headlines from the Middle East and the path of oil prices.
