London, March 4, 2026, 08:44 GMT — Regular session in progress.
- Glencore shares moved only slightly in early London trading.
- Miners caught analysts’ attention as a possible inflation hedge, with the Iran conflict stirring up the commodities market.
- Energy prices and UK rate-cut wagers are now in focus for investors looking for the next move.
Shares of Glencore nudged higher early Wednesday in London. After the recent market slump, miners sought footing, with a Jefferies note claiming the sector stands to gain from this latest bout of geopolitical turmoil.
Traders are watching the stock again as inflation risk gets repriced across the board. On Tuesday, Britain’s FTSE 100 dropped 2.8% and the FTSE 250 shed 3.1%. Brent surged close to 7%, while European gas prices leapt 15%, triggering a pullback in expectations for a Bank of England rate cut this month. “If higher energy prices squeeze real incomes and prevent the Bank from cutting rates,” growth hopes could slip away, said David Rees, head of global economics at Schroders. Reuters
Jefferies’ Christopher LaFemina is sounding more upbeat on miners, arguing the recent sector rally lines up with both “elevated geopolitical risks” and persistent inflation concerns. He called the weekend’s escalation “fundamentally positive” for metals and mining stocks. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could squeeze supply, LaFemina pointed out, since about 9% of global aluminium comes from Gulf countries relying on that route. Iran itself produces close to 3% of the world’s iron ore. He flagged another headwind: pricier energy, which could push miners’ cost curves higher. Investing.com
Glencore (GLEN.L) edged up to 527.0 pence as of 08:44 GMT, a fractional gain of 0.1% from its Tuesday finish. Shares moved between 522.64 and 529.50 pence so far.
That slight shift doesn’t tell the whole story for Glencore, a heavyweight in the FTSE 100 and a significant force in commodities trading. Price swings might drive up trading volumes, yet rising fuel and power expenses usually cut fast into margins from mining and processing.
Investors are juggling two narratives here. When oil and gas prices climb, energy-linked assets tend to benefit. But as borrowing costs rise and risk appetite fades—especially when inflation worries resurface—cyclicals like miners usually take a hit.
Jefferies is betting that when inflation expectations jump, commodities offer a hedge. The catch: the same shock pushing up raw materials can also inflate operating costs, putting a squeeze on consumers and potentially hitting demand in return.
Here’s the risk: should tensions ease, risk premiums could disappear quickly and commodity-linked shares may surrender recent advances. A resilient dollar and wary central banks would likely keep a lid on metals prices, leaving equity buyers on the back foot.
Traders are keeping an eye on Middle East shipping headlines, oil and European gas price moves, and changes in UK rate-cut bets. Next up from Glencore: its Q1 production update, due April 30.
