ISTANBUL, March 7, 2026, 12:52 (UTC+03:00)
Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 slid 2.19% Friday to close at 12,792.81, down from 13,717.81 a week ago. Turkish equities took a hit through the week as oil prices pushed higher, the lira lost ground, and expectations for another rate cut faded.
Why does that matter? Turkey’s central bank is set to meet March 12, and a Reuters poll finds most economists now predict the policy rate will hold steady at 37%—no cut this time. For a country heavily reliant on imported energy, pricier oil rapidly stokes inflation, making the fight to cool prices even tougher.
The bank didn’t wait. Reuters cited roughly $8 billion in foreign-exchange sales on Monday; by the end of the week, economists pegged the total at close to $13 billion. Overnight lira funding rates jumped to around 40%, overtaking the 37% repo rate, which is the central bank’s main policy rate.
The lira struggled through the week, touching a record low of 43.9950 against the dollar on Monday. By Friday evening, it hovered at 44.0750. Brent crude, meanwhile, climbed to $88.9 a barrel, up from $72.65 just a week ago.
February’s inflation numbers offered scant respite. Consumer prices jumped 2.96% from the previous month, pushing the annual increase to 31.53%. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek commented, “We are working to limit the inflationary impact of rising oil prices due to geopolitical developments.” Reuters
Banks were out front on the slide. Reuters reported the BIST banking index dropped almost 5% Monday; fast forward to Friday, just 25 stocks in the BIST 100 finished higher, 74 closed lower, and the benchmark’s total market value shrank from 13.59 trillion liras a week ago to around 12.6 trillion.
Selling pressure hit more than just Turkey. MSCI’s emerging-markets index dropped over 6% this week, and Europe’s STOXX 600 shed 5.5%. Still, Turkish stocks felt the squeeze harder—imported energy dependence turns up the heat whenever oil climbs and bets on rate cuts cool.
Underneath the selloff, a steadier tone lingered. Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, urged Turkey to “stay on course” with its inflation battle, and noted the lender’s investment in the country will stay “very high” this year. Reuters
The risks, though, remain front and center. Prolonged tensions with Iran could keep oil prices stubbornly high, limiting central banks’ capacity to cut rates and stoking inflation concerns. Renaud-Basso warned the conflict “can reduce risk capital,” adding, “the risk is on the downside.” Reuters
March 12 comes up next. HSBC expects the central bank to hold rates steady; the key question is whether officials maintain tough funding to bolster the lira, or hint that last week’s surprise can be handled.
