New York, March 7, 2026, 14:09 EST — Market closed
Microsoft shares settled at $408.96 on Friday, ticking down 0.4% after edging lower in the last session. The stock remains close to $409 as the company moves into next week, with investors parsing renewed signals of AI demand while the broader macro picture turned gloomier toward week’s end.
Timing is critical here. Microsoft’s January earnings reignited questions about how fast its massive AI investment will start showing up in Azure’s numbers and Copilot’s top line. But the real macro flashpoint is coming up Wednesday, when the February consumer price index drops.
The mood from Friday lingered. The Nasdaq shed 1.59% after February’s payrolls came in soft—jobs sank by 92,000 and unemployment reached 4.4%. Oil prices surged, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions. Nvidia slid 3.1%, Amazon dropped 2.7%, and Alphabet dipped 0.8%. Microsoft, meanwhile, saw a smaller decline.
The most tangible new catalyst for Microsoft came out of a March 5 deal with Codelco. The two will be working together for 18 months, looking at how AI, automation, analytics, and digital security can be used in mining. Not a game-changer for numbers right away, but Microsoft Latin America President Tito Arciniega pointed to the potential for “safer, more efficient and sustainable operations”—a concrete example of the kind investors are after. Reuters
Supplier signals told a big part of the story. Broadcom, on March 5, projected AI chip sales would top $100 billion next year. Marvell, for its part, pointed to sustained growth thanks to custom AI chips and networking hardware—essentials for major cloud players. “Demand is still growing massively,” Marvell President and COO Chris Koopmans said, a choice of words likely to catch Microsoft investors’ attention. Microsoft, together with Alphabet and Amazon, continues to drive that spending. Reuters
Those January numbers set the stage. Microsoft’s Azure unit posted 39% growth in the October-December period—just barely topping forecasts—while capital expenditures reached $37.5 billion. The company reported commercial remaining performance obligations at $625 billion, with around 45% connected to OpenAI. Microsoft 365 Copilot, meanwhile, had signed up 15 million paying users.
Management says investors miss the bigger story by zeroing in on Azure alone. CEO Satya Nadella told analysts to consider Azure together with M365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot, and other AI offerings, all of which have what he called “a lifetime value.” CFO Amy Hood added that demand, so far, “continues to exceed our supply.” Microsoft
Next week’s bullish setup isn’t hard to spot. Codelco just handed Microsoft a new enterprise AI application, while Broadcom and Marvell offered a glimpse that hyperscaler appetite hasn’t faded. Unless Wednesday’s inflation data throws another curveball, that combo might be enough to get buyers off the sidelines.
The risk? It’s right there. A stronger-than-expected CPI print—or another rally in oil—could keep the squeeze on growth names that are sensitive to rates. Microsoft, for its part, hasn’t really shaken off January’s worries over AI returns: capex ballooned, Azure barely edged past estimates, and a hefty chunk of the backlog is still linked to OpenAI.
The next key moment lands Wednesday, March 11: February CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, set for 8:30 a.m. ET. If the number comes in soft, Microsoft bulls may pivot to bets on Azure and Copilot demand. A hot print, though, puts macro worries front and center.
